SMM Morning Review - 2010/9/28 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 28 (SMM) -- Market players took a cautious attitude toward market outlook, and locked in profit before the US government released its core inflation data and PPI data, and ahead of the release of news concerning the mergers and acquisitions of some enterprises including Southwest Airlines, and the European and US stocks closed with mild declines on September 27th as a result. The US dollar index fell to 79.188 earlier yesterday, hitting a record low since early February 2010, but later the US dollar index rebounded to 79.5 after the negative news that the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy has been mostly absorbed by the market.   

LME aluminum prices opened at USD 2,301/mt, with prices mainly fluctuating narrowly in the morning session, and with the highest prices reported at USD 2,315/mt. However, negatively affected by falling Dow Jones Industrial Average and strengthening US dollar index, LME aluminum prices moved lower and fell below USD 2,300/mt, at USD 2,280/mt, with prices finally closing at USD 2,293/mt, down USD 22/mt compared with the previous trading day, or down 1%. Total trading volumes increased slightly to 84,365 lots, while positions increased by 7,792 lots to 654,329 lots. LME aluminum inventories declined continuously to 4,365,150 mt.

SHFE aluminum prices showed strong performance at the tail of trading yesterday. SHFE 1012 aluminum contract prices opened slightly lower today negatively affected by falling LME aluminum prices, but posted a narrower decline compared with other base metals. The positive impact from production cuts at aluminum producers will continue to support aluminum prices, with long position momentum still strong. In this context, SHFE aluminum prices are expected to rise further after short-term fluctuations, with SHFE 1012 aluminum contract prices expected to climb to RMB 16,000/mt in the near term.

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