SMM Morning Review - 2010/5/25 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, May 25 (SMM) -- LME base metals prices closed up last night. LME aluminum prices opened at USD 2,047/mt, with the highest level and the lowest level at USD 2,095/mt and USD 2,029.75/mt, respectively, and finally prices ended at USD 2,084/mt, up USD 27/mt compared with the previous trading day, or up 1.31%. Total trading volumes reported 127,069 lots, and total positions were 715,525 lots, up 5,669 lots. LME aluminum inventories declined by 5,250 mt to 4,578,725 mt.

The European Union (EU) Commission President José Manuel Barroso accused Germany's proposal in response to the debt crisis in the Euro zone. European leaders are still divided on how to protect the euro, and Barroso gave an opposition to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's allegation that it is inevitable to change the EU regulations, and the euro fell from 1.26 to 1.23, which in turn pushed up the US dollar index to 86.5.

Xu Lianzhong, the Director of Analysis and Prediction Division of Price Monitoring Center of China National Development and Reform Commission, said yesterday that it is too early for China to carry out an exit strategy by phasing out fiscal stimulus, and China should prevent the economic growth slowing.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released on Monday that existing home sales in April climbed by 7.6% to an annual rate of 5.77 million as buyers rushed to qualify for an expiring government tax credit, better than expected level of 5.65 million, while the existing home sales were revised to an annual rate of 5.36 million in March. Although China's policy and the better-than-expected US economic data both boosted the investment sentiment, the pessimism surrounding global economy still dominated the investors. Meanwhile, sources reported on Monday that Spain is facing national strike as Spain government is cutting expenditures, and overall financial markets fluctuated lower as a result.

Yesterday, China National Development and Reform Commission denied the report that there would no introduction of a property tax for three years, which to some extent helped boost the real estate shares, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded as a result. Base metals prices closed up, but growth in SHFE aluminum prices was much lower than that in other metals, and SMM predicts SHFE three-month aluminum contract prices will move between RMB 15,100-15,300/mt today.     

To contact the writer on this report: angelawang@smm.cn

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