SMM Morning Review - 2010/5/18 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, May 18 (SMM) -- LME base metals prices continued to move on a downward track last night. LME aluminum prices opened at USD 2,084/mt, with the highest level and the lowest level at USD 2,094/mt and USD 1,983/mt, respectively, and finally prices ended at USD 1,990/mt, down USD 111/mt compared with the previous trading day, or down 5.28%. Total trading volumes reported 200,924 lots, and total positions were 739,782 lots, up 3,393 lots. LME aluminum inventories continued to decline by 4,325 mt to 4,474,425 mt.

The euro plunged against the US dollar on Monday, and the US dollar index climbed to 87 in response, and later the euro rebounded slightly, but later the US dollar strengthened again, with the index picking up to around 86.4. The European stock markets fluctuated negatively affected by falling mining stocks, and the dropping commodity prices generated market concerns over the economic development in Euro zone, and the euro slumped to a 4-year low against the US dollar in response, and New York crude oil futures prices fell below USD 70/bbl as well. The European stocks finally closed with decline due to a stream of negative news. Investors were concerned that the euro will weaken further and that the Euro zone members' moves to cut budget deficit will also likely hamper the economic recovery. China's one economic leading indicator shows China's economic growth will slow, which in turn triggers inventors' concern over Chinese demand.

SMM predicts SHFE aluminum prices will continue to move on a downward track today, and SHFE 1008 aluminum contract prices will test the RMB 15,000/mt mark, with special focus on the US dollar index trends and stock market movements today.      

To contact the writer on this report: angelawang@smm.cn

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