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China's 'Bubble' May Burst by 2011, Tiberius Says (Update1)
Feb 10,2010 09:00CST
data analysis

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China's "bubble" may burst by 2011 following "restrictive" measures by the nation's central bank, said Tiberius Asset Management AG, which manages about $1.8 billion in assets including commodities.

Chinese regulators, aiming to stem rising inflationary pressures, moved last month to slow a credit boom with measures to restrict lending.

"We expect the China bubble to pop by 2011, but no earlier than the end of 2010," Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius said in a monthly report distributed today. "A prerequisite for such a development would be a series of restrictive interventions on the part of Bank of China."

China's efforts to stem inflationary pressures came as the nation's economic growth accelerated to a 10.7 percent year-on- year pace in the last three months of 2009. Gross domestic product is forecast to climb another 9.5 percent this year. China is the world's largest consumer of all industrial metals and second to the U.S. in oil consumption.

"Initial central bank measures are still accompanied by a strong economy and a favorable market trend," Tiberius said. "On the other hand, the mood is less positive than at the start of the year."

China's monetary policy "paved the way" for weakness in industrial metals last month, Tiberius said. The LMEX index of six metals on the London Metal Exchange slumped 8.2 percent, the most since 2008, led by copper's 8.5 percent loss.

Macro control policy

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