SMM Morning Review - 2010/1/21 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jan. 21 (SMM) -- Yesterday, LME aluminum prices opened at USD 2,310/mt, with highest and lowest level at USD 2,312.5/mt and USD 2,242/mt, respectively, and finally prices ended at USD 2,259/mt.  Total trading volumes reported 9,315 lots, and positions were 705,283 lots. LME aluminum inventories declined by 950 mt to 4,622,225 mt.

Yesterday, Chinese authorities ordered some major banks to curb their lending for the rest of January, but Mingkang, Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) denied this news at the Asian Financial Forum. However, he also said the CBRC has controlled the pace and the amount of credit supply this year given growing credit risks in mainland banking industry. The news resulted in significant declines in China's stock prices yesterday, and the US dollar index jumped above 78, but met resistance at 78.5. LME base metals prices plunged last night due to concerns over commodity demand outlook caused by possible tightening of cash flow.

Macro news was mixed recently, and metals prices fluctuated in response, with shortages of both downward and upward momentum. The optimistic sentiment was not strong enough today due to concerns that major banks will stop lending during the remainder of January, and from market rumors with regard to interest rate hikes. SHFE aluminum prices have hit 20-day moving average line yesterday, and SMM predicts SHFE aluminum prices will receive support at RMB 17,200/mt today, with prices expected to move in the RMB 17,200-17,500/mt range.

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