[Al] SMM Morning Review - 2009/11/20 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Nov. 20 (SMM) -- LME aluminum prices opened at USD 2,056/mt yesterday, with highest and lowest level at USD 2,073/mt and USD 2,020/mt, respectively, and finally prices ended at USD 2,037/mt.  Total trading volumes reported 7,336 lots, and positions were 693,060 lots. LME aluminum inventories soared unexpectedly by 35,925 mt to 4,595,250 mt, which is expected to dampen recent strong LME aluminum prices.

    The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank released on Thursday that the index of manufacturing activity in November was 16.7 in the US mid-Atlantic region; the US Conference Board released on Thursday that the leading indicator in October rose by 0.3%, a rise for seven consecutive months, while previous forecast was a 0.5% growth. Yesterday, the US dollar index was dampened by short positions after surged to 75.5. However, the US dollar will continue to depreciate as the US will maintain low interest rate, stimulating market expectation of inflation, and more speculative funds will enter base metal markets as a result. Struggles between long and short positions intensified when base metal prices were high, since recent increases in base metal prices were mainly propelled by speculative funds, with market fundamentals remaining weak.

    SHFE three-month contract aluminum prices are expected to move in the RMB 15,500-15,700/mt range today.

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