[Cu] China's Refined Copper Exports by Processing Trade Mode Expected to Grow in 4Q, But Increases to Be Limited

SHANGHAI, Oct. 30 (SMM) -- According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's exports of refined copper were 10,705 mt in September. It is the first time that refined copper exports have surpassed 10,000 in more than one year. China's refined copper imports have reported continuous increases since the start of June.  Market players believe the growing exports were due mainly to the persistently sluggish SHFE/LME copper price ratio, and there is possibility that China's exports of refined copper in the processing trade mode will likely increase during 4Q.

    Earlier this year, seven domestic copper smelters have been approved by the authorities to engage in copper concentrate processing trade with imported materials. CBI surveyed some smelters qualified in this trade, revealing the following insights. China faced big supply gap of refined copper during the first half of 2009, and the SHFE/LME copper price ratio was incentive for imports. Therefore, China's average refined copper exports were 200-400 mt during this period, leaving no need to use export quotas for processing trade. Given constant spot discounts in domestic markets, the low price ratio, and unused export quotas for processing trade, some smelters have made it clearly that they will increase refined copper exports in the form of processing trade during 4Q, and this will likely improve China's exports of refined copper by the means of processing trade in 4Q. However, the increases will be limited as the number of domestic smelters with plans to export refined copper in 4Q now is small.

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