[Ni] CBI Morning Review - 2009/1/6 Nickel Market

SHANGHAI, Jan. 6 (CBI China) -- Yesterday, due to the U.S. economic stimulus plan and expectations of the central bank to cut interest rates, the dollar rose sharply, the basic metals fell under pressure, LME nickel, LME tin and LME lead experienced sharp decline, and took profits when the long appeared after the significant rise recently.

    From the fundamentals, in the United States, the declines of construction spending in November were far less than expected, the construction spending on commercial and government rose.  

    U.S. light vehicles sales in December fell 35.7% YoY. GM said that the output in 1Q is expected to be 420,000, down 53% YoY.  

    China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 41.2%, up 2.4 percentage point from the previous month, but below 50% for three consecutive months.  

    The latest data shows that the current fundamentals have improved compared to November, but were still in recession in general. TISCO announced the production of stainless steel was 1.8 million mt, down 11% YoY. It is informed that the stainless steel output of the three major steel mills in January increased slightly in December, of which TISCO 110 kt, Baosteel 60 kt, Zhangpu 30 kt, the production rise was mainly due to a small amount of stock by dealers.  

    Li Yongjun from Jinchuan yesterday said in an interview that the Jinchuan will increase copper and nickel production in 2009, namely, 125 kt of nickel (an increase of 25%), 400 kt of copper, 7.8 kt of cobalt, 2.1 million mt of chemical products. As the cancellation of processing trade export tariffs was announced in nickel, copper export policy, in theory, Jinchuan can export more than 50 kt of refined nickel next year next year more than 50,000 tons of pure nickel, which will deliver greater pressure on nickel price.  

    Yesterday, nickel prices fell and then rebound, trading volume maintained a high level, indicating the market still had large differences in this price. But at the current price, the additional 2480 lots of positions are thought to be the short established by the large funds, so the medium-term nickel prices are still on downward trend. As the impact of index fund buying still exists, the nickel prices will continue to fluctuate till mid-January.

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