수입 감소, 수출 증가: 2026년 8월 중국 전기동 순수입 감소 [SMM 분석]

Looking ahead to tomorrow, available supply in the Shanghai region is expected to remain tight, and with some downstream processing enterprises still having pre-holiday stockpiling demand, spot premiums continue to receive strong support. Although a small amount of imported copper locked in at favorable SHFE/LME price ratios after the import window opened earlier is gradually arriving, the overall volume is limited, and its supplementary effect on market supply is expected to be relatively modest in the short term, making it difficult to significantly ease the current supply tightness. Therefore, spot premiums are expected to have further room to rise tomorrow. However, copper prices are already at elevated levels, the backwardation between prompt and forward months has widened simultaneously, and spot premiums have climbed rapidly, leading to a notable increase in procurement costs for downstream and end-user enterprises, which may gradually reduce their acceptance of high premiums. If premiums continue to rise rapidly, some downstream buyers may turn to a wait-and-see stance, just-in-time procurement may decrease, and market trading activity may pull back. Market participants are advised to monitor the risk of negative feedback on the demand side amid the combined effects of high copper prices, high backwardation, and high premiums.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, available supply in the Shanghai region is expected to remain tight. Coupled with the persistent pre-holiday stockpiling demand from some downstream processing enterprises, this continues to provide strong support for spot premiums. Although some imported copper locked in at favorable SHFE/LME price ratios after the import window opened earlier is gradually arriving, the overall volume is limited. The supplementary effect on market supply is expected to be relatively modest in the short term, making it difficult to significantly ease the current supply tightness. As a result, spot premiums are expected to have further room to rise tomorrow. However, copper prices are already at elevated levels, and the backwardation spread between futures contracts has widened simultaneously. Combined with the rapid climb in spot premiums, procurement costs for downstream and end-user enterprises have increased markedly, and their acceptance of high premiums may gradually decline. If premiums continue to rise rapidly, some downstream buyers may turn to a wait-and-see stance, reducing just-in-time procurement, and market trading activity may pull back. Market participants are advised to monitor the risk of negative feedback on the demand side amid the combined effects of high copper prices, deep backwardation, and elevated premiums.

캡스톤 코퍼(Capstone Copper Corp.)(TSX: CS; ASX: CSC)는 2026년 9월 21일 멕시코 사카테카스에 위치한 코자민(Cozamin) 구리-은-아연-납 지하 광산을 루카 마이닝(Luca Mining Corp.)(TSXV: LUCA)에 최대 3억 8,500만 달러 규모에 매각하기로 합의했다. 이번 거래는 선불 현금 2억 7,500만 달러, 루카 주식 1,500만 달러, 1년 후 지급되는 이연 금액 3,500만 달러, 그리고 연평균 구리 가격과 연동된 최대 6,000만 달러의 조건부 현금으로 구성된다. 코자민 광산은 2023년부터 2030년까지 연평균 구리 2만 톤과 은 130만 온스를 생산할 것으로 예상되며, C1 비용은 지급 가능 파운드당 약 1.51달러 수준이다. 거래 종결은 2026년 4분기를 목표로 하며 주주 승인이 필요하지 않다. 이번 매각으로 캡스톤은 칠레와 미국의 성장 프로젝트를 위한 재무 건전성을 강화하게 된다.