[SMM 중동/이란 주간 리뷰] 리알화 가치 하락이 국내 시장에 불붙이다; 홍해 리스크가 물류 비용을 재편하다

Tosyalı SULB, a joint venture between Turkish steelmaker Tosyalı Holding and Libya United Steel Company for Iron and Steel Industry, plans to attract around $2.5 billion in investment for a direct reduced iron (DRI) project near Benghazi, with commercial production targeted for early 2028. The complex will comprise three DRI production units with combined annual capacity of 8.1 million mt once fully completed, with the first phase set at around 2.7 million mt/year — natural gas supply arrangements for this phase are already in place, alongside a dedicated power facility under development. Chairman Ahmed Gadallah said about 90% of output is targeted for export, mainly to Europe, while the remainder will supply rebar and steel pipes for Libya's domestic market.

There have been price changes since last week: rebar (505→510 USD/metric ton), slab (485→490 USD/metric ton), HRC (525→528 USD/metric ton), and billet (480→485->480->477 USD/metric ton). This is due to manufacturers trying to gauge the market on how they will react. However, it seems that it is the billet that is reacting. When prices were raised, it turned out that Chinese steel products, especially billet, experienced a decline. Ultimately, the prices in Indonesia had no choice but to lower. However, now that buyers' expectations are 5-10 USD/ton lower than the manufacturers', the manufacturers are now trying to reduce billet prices. Let's see what happens in the market next week, but if buyers have a stronger market position, then prices are likely to drop next week as well.

[인도네시아] 오늘 빌렛 가격이 다시 톤당 3달러 하락하여 FOB 기준 톤당 477달러를 기록했다. 이는 제철소들이 가격을 낮추기 시작하면서 시장에서 구매자들의 입지가 더 강해지고 있음을 시사한다. 앞서 수요는 여전히 존재한다고 언급되었지만, 구매자들은 톤당 5~10달러 하락이 제품 구매에 적절한 가격이라고 생각할 것이라는 전망이 나오고 있다. 그러나 현재 선적 일정은 빠르면 2027년 1월로 미뤄졌다. 따라서 정비 문제가 생산에 영향을 미치고 제품 출하를 지연시키는 것으로 보인다. 수요가 조금씩 존재하지만 구매자들이 여전히 가격 인하를 고려하고 있다는 것이 사실이라면, 가격은 구매자들의 바람을 따를 것이다.