August is about to end, and the commercial vehicle market is about to conclude its final traditional off-season. Based on CAAM's July production and sales data and the CPCA's August high-frequency data, we briefly review the market performance in the first seven months of this year, focusing on August and the trends ahead.
January-July: stable total volume, changing structure
From January to July, cumulative commercial vehicle sales reached 2.614 million units, up 7.7% YoY. In July alone, 317,000 units were sold, up 3.5% YoY, but down 22.5% MoM—a predictable decline, as July is normally an off-season, coupled with the front-loaded demand from automakers' June sales push. Within the broader automotive market, commercial vehicles were the only segment to post positive growth this year, while cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 3.7% in the same period.
New energy side: In July, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 92,000 units, up 48.8% YoY, with a penetration rate of 46.9%, a historical high. Cumulative sales from January to July totaled 587,000 units, up 42.1% YoY, with a cumulative penetration rate of 32.1%, a further increase from the full-year 2025 level (approximately 29%). Exports: In July, new energy commercial vehicle exports stood at 13,000 units, up 150% YoY, though still on a small base; overall commercial vehicle exports remain dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles, with new energy accounting for roughly 11%, a share that will gradually realize in the future.
Heavy trucks: From January to July, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 744,900 units, up 19% YoY. Among them, new energy heavy trucks totaled 166,500 units, up 74% YoY, with a penetration rate of 35.29%; in July alone, the end-user penetration rate hit 47.25%, a new high for the year. By segment, dump trucks in July more than doubled YoY (+111%), mainly driven by local new energy proportion requirements and infrastructure projects like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway; tractors remained the largest segment, accounting for about 76% of new energy heavy trucks.
Exports: In July, commercial vehicle exports totaled 121,000 units, up 59.6% YoY, and exports accounted for 38% of the month's total sales, providing important support for maintaining positive overall growth. Exports from January to July continued to grow strongly, and it is unlikely to be a problem to set a new record this year.
August: normal pullback in the off-season
August is the slowest month of the year, coupled with the high base created by last year's trade-in policy. The month's sales are expected to decline MoM and may turn negative YoY on a temporary basis—these are all anticipated adjustments and do not signal a market weakening. CPCA data show that passenger vehicle retail sales in the first half of August were down approximately 22% YoY, and commercial vehicle demand is also weakening, but new energy orders underpinned by the policy will make the magnitude relatively smaller compared with passenger vehicles.
What deserves more attention during the off-season are two structural indicators:
First, the penetration rate. Penetration rate is a variable reflecting policy-driven changes and has little correlation with peak or off-seasons. In August, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to remain around 45%, with the monthly penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks between 40% and 50%, and a further push to 50% cannot be ruled out.
Second, exports. Export orders are mostly medium and long-term and are less affected by the domestic off-season. In August, exports are expected to still exceed 100,000 units, maintaining double-digit YoY growth.
Dual Boost from Policy and Peak Season, September-December
For the full-year outlook, our key points are: total volume maintains mild growth, and the structure continues to tilt toward new energy.
In terms of total volume, September to December has historically accounted for half of full-year sales. Starting in September, demand is expected to gradually rebound MoM. Coupled with the continuous flow of retirement and renewal subsidy funds and year-end vehicle stocking for volume, a sequential volume increase in Q4 is highly likely. We expect full-year commercial vehicle sales growth to be between 5% and 8%.
Structurally, several forecast figures:
- The full-year penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to break through 35% and approach 40%;
- Full-year sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks are projected at 280,000-300,000 units, with a penetration rate exceeding 40% (approximately 29% last year);
- Commercial vehicle exports are expected to reach 1.3 million units annually, hitting a new historical high.
On the policy side, the most critical measure this year remains the retirement and renewal of old operating trucks: retiring China III and China IV trucks and replacing them with new energy heavy-duty trucks can receive subsidies of up to 140,000 yuan per unit, a substantial amount, and the policy is implemented throughout the year. Additionally, new operating heavy-duty trucks are required to be equipped with an automatic emergency braking system, which costs tens of thousands of yuan, significantly raising the purchase cost of internal combustion engine vehicles. In contrast, although new energy vehicles have higher initial prices, they are much cheaper to run on electricity than on fuel, and maintenance is more convenient. Over several years, the total cost is actually more favorable. Once this calculation is clear, more people will opt for new energy vehicles, which is the fundamental reason for the continued upward trend in penetration rates.
On the competitive landscape, the rankings in the new energy heavy-duty truck track change every month: in July, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group sold 4,956 units, ranking first, while Sany, FAW Jiefang, and XCMG are closely following. United Heavy Truck is a dark horse, with a YoY increase of 311%.
Finally, several risks that demand may fall short of expectations:
- Continuously low freight rates and insufficient freight demand may suppress the willingness to replace vehicles, which is the biggest demand-side constraint for the volume growth of new energy heavy-duty trucks;
- The pace of subsidy fund distribution varies across regions; if disbursement is slow, the effect during the peak season may be discounted;
- Trade barriers against Chinese electric trucks in regions such as the EU may affect the pace of export volume growth;
- The high base in H2 last year may lead to temporary negative YoY growth in individual months, making cumulative figures and penetration rate more noteworthy than monthly numbers.
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