ใ€ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์•„์ด์ž‘ ๋‹ค์šด์Šค ํ™•์žฅ EIS, ๊ณต๊ฐœ ํ˜‘์˜ ๋Œ์ž…โ€ฆ ROM ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 200~450๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ œ์•ˆใ€‘

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 20, 2026 10:45

ํ€ธ์ฆ๋žœ๋“œ ์ฃผ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ด์‚ญ ๋‹ค์šด์Šค ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€์„œ๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์ฒญํšŒ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ€๋„๋ก ํ—ˆ์šฉํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์˜๊ฒฌ ์ œ์ถœ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ 2026๋…„ 8์›” 19์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 9์›” 29์ผ๊นŒ์ง€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. Stanmore ID Extension Pty Ltd๊ฐ€ ์ œ์•ˆํ•œ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์กด ์ด์‚ญ ๋‹ค์šด์Šค ๊ด‘์‚ฐ(IDM) ๋‚จ์„œ์ชฝ์— ๋…ธ์ฒœํƒ„๊ด‘์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ, 15๋…„ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ๋™์•ˆ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์›ํƒ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 200๋งŒ~450๋งŒ ํ†ค(2~4.5 Mtpa)์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ„ํš๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ์ด์‚ญ ํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ธ์ฆˆ ๋ณตํ•ฉ๋‹จ์ง€(IPC)์— ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋˜์–ด, ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ์„ํƒ„ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌยท์„ ํƒ„ ์‹œ์„ค, ์—ด์ฐจ ์ ์žฌ ์‹œ์„ค, ์ฒ ๋„ ์ˆœํ™˜์„ , ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ์šด๋ฐ˜ ๋„๋กœ, ์šฉ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ธํ”„๋ผ๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์•„์ง ํ™˜๊ฒฝ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ์–ด, ์‚ฌ์—…์ž๋Š” ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๊ฐ€ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜๊ธฐ ์ „์— ์ ‘์ˆ˜๋œ ์˜๊ฒฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‹ต๋ณ€ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ •๋ถ€ ์Šน์ธ๋„ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM Analysis] Twin Barriers Force a Trade Reset: A Full Anatomy of the Scramble for the EU's 18.35 Mt Steel Quota
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[SMM Analysis] Twin Barriers Force a Trade Reset: A Full Anatomy of the Scramble for the EU's 18.35 Mt Steel Quota
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM Analysis] Twin Barriers Force a Trade Reset: A Full Anatomy of the Scramble for the EU's 18.35 Mt Steel Quota
[SMM Analysis] Twin Barriers Force a Trade Reset: A Full Anatomy of the Scramble for the EU's 18.35 Mt Steel Quota
The EU's temporary steel safeguard expired at end-June 2026 and a permanent TRQ took its place โ€” duty-free volume nearly halved to about 18.35 Mt, the out-of-quota duty doubled to 50%, and a first-ever "melt and pour" origin rule. Using the official allocations, this piece breaks the quota down category by category and country by country: HRC alone claims about 5.2 million tonnes, Tรผrkiye takes the largest share, Taiwan, China is squeezed hardest โ€” and CBAM stacks a second barrier on top.
15๋ถ„ ์ „
ใ€์นด์žํ์Šคํƒ„, ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์ฒ  ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์— ์„ํƒ„ 410๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋น„์ถ•ใ€‘
29๋ถ„ ์ „
ใ€์นด์žํ์Šคํƒ„, ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์ฒ  ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์— ์„ํƒ„ 410๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋น„์ถ•ใ€‘
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€์นด์žํ์Šคํƒ„, ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์ฒ  ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์— ์„ํƒ„ 410๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋น„์ถ•ใ€‘
ใ€์นด์žํ์Šคํƒ„, ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์ฒ  ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์— ์„ํƒ„ 410๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋น„์ถ•ใ€‘
์นด์žํ์Šคํƒ„ ๊ตํ†ต๋ถ€๋Š” 2026๋…„ 5์›” 1์ผ ์ดํ›„ ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์— 1,780๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ์„ํƒ„์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ๊ณต๊ณต ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์—๋Š” 120๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๋น„์ถ•๋Ÿ‰์€ ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ 410๋งŒ ํ†ค, ๊ณต๊ณต ๋ถ€๋ฌธ 30๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด๋‹ค. ์นด์žํ์Šคํƒ„์€ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ ์‹œ์ฆŒ ์ค‘ ์•ˆ์ •์ ์ธ ์„ํƒ„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ข…ํ•ฉ ์‹คํ–‰ ๊ณ„ํš์„ ๋งˆ๋ จ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฐ ๊ณต๊ณต ์‹œ์„ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ค‘๋‹จ ์—†๋Š” ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณผ ํ”ผํฌ ์ˆ˜์š” ์‹œ ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ์ฒ ๋„ ํ™œ์šฉ์— ์ค‘์ ์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์นด์ฆˆํ…Œ๋ฏธ๋ฅดํŠธ๋ž€์Šค๋Š” 2๋งŒ 9,000๋Œ€์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฐœ ํ™”์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๊ตํ†ต๋ถ€๋Š” ์ด๋กœ์จ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ, ๊ฐ€์ • ๋ฐ ์‚ฐ์—…๊ณ„์— ์„ํƒ„์„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ธฐ์— ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณธ๋‹ค. ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ถ€๋Š” ์„ํƒ„์˜ ์ฑ„๊ตด๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์šด์†ก, ๊ณต๊ธ‰, ํŒ๋งค๊นŒ์ง€ ์ถ”์ ํ•˜๋Š” ํ†ตํ•ฉ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋™ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
29๋ถ„ ์ „
ใ€Aurizon, ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 3,700๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ BMA ์„ํƒ„ ์šด์†ก ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐใ€‘
30๋ถ„ ์ „
ใ€Aurizon, ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 3,700๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ BMA ์„ํƒ„ ์šด์†ก ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐใ€‘
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€Aurizon, ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 3,700๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ BMA ์„ํƒ„ ์šด์†ก ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐใ€‘
ใ€Aurizon, ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 3,700๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ BMA ์„ํƒ„ ์šด์†ก ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐใ€‘
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ฒ ๋„ ํ™”๋ฌผ ์—…์ฒด ์˜ค๋ฆฌ์กด(Aurizon)์ด ํ€ธ์ฆ๋žœ๋“œ ์ค‘๋ถ€ BHP ๋ฏธ์“ฐ๋น„์‹œ ์–ผ๋ผ์ด์–ธ์Šค์˜ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์šด์˜์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์„ํƒ„ ์šด์†ก ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ์ฒด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ 2028๋…„ 7์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํšจ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 2015๋…„ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ๋œ ๊ธฐ์กด ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•œ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 3,700๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ์šด์†ก์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ํ•ฉ์˜๋œ ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๋ฐ ์—ฐ์žฅ ์กฐ๊ฑด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ตœ์žฅ 12๋…„๊ฐ„ ์œ ์ง€๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋Œ€์ƒ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์€ ๊ตฌ๋‹ˆ์—˜๋ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ฒ„์‚ฌ์ด๋“œ, ๋ธŒ๋กœ๋“œ๋ฉ”๋„์šฐ, ํ”ผํฌ ๋‹ค์šด์Šค, ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€, ์บ๋ฒŒ ๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์ œ์ฒ ์šฉ ์„ํƒ„ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด๋‹ค. 3,700๋งŒ ํ†ค์€ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ฒ ๋„ ์šด์†ก ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋œปํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰, ์ฆ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๋˜๋Š” ๋ณด์žฅ๋œ ์šด์†ก ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.
30๋ถ„ ์ „
ํ€ธ์ฆ๋žœ๋“œ ์ฃผ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ด์‚ญ ๋‹ค์šด์Šค ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€์„œ๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์ฒญํšŒ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ€๋„๋ก ํ—ˆ์šฉํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์˜๊ฒฌ ์ œ์ถœ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ 202 - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)