Aluminum Prices Continue to Fall, Sentiment to Stand Firm on Aluminum Scrap Quotes Evident [[Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]]

SMM, May 7:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 19,610 yuan/mt. The overall prices in the aluminum scrap market adjusted downward in line with primary aluminum. After the Labour Day holiday, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry declined overall. Downstream processing enterprises faced weak order releases, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs.
Today, the concentrated quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap ranged from 14,800 to 15,400 yuan/mt (tax excluded), while the concentrated quotes for shredded aluminum tense scrap ranged from 15,650 to 17,150 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive prices). Regionally, regions such as Hunan, Jiangxi, and Foshan showed a clear stance of standing firm on quotes, with price adjustments ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. In other regions, including Shanghai, Jiangsu, Henan, and Anhui, prices followed A00 aluminum with significant downward adjustments. By product, prices for shredded aluminum tense scrap and wheel hubs removed from vehicles remained unchanged from yesterday. In terms of products, the supply of wrought aluminum alloy scrap products such as bare bright aluminum wire and shredded wrought aluminum alloy scrap remained tight, with price adjustments ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/mt. The prices of baled UBC aluminum scrap generally decreased by 100 yuan/mt.

In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai increased by 32 yuan/mt from yesterday to 1,871 yuan/mt. In Foshan, the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum extrusion scrap decreased by 112 yuan/mt from yesterday to 1,386 yuan/mt, with a significant narrowing of the price difference between A00 aluminum and wrought aluminum alloy scrap.
In the short term, the aluminum scrap market is likely to maintain a pattern of fluctuating at highs. However, if primary aluminum experiences strong volatility due to macro factors (such as US Fed policies or geopolitical conflicts), or if domestic secondary aluminum enterprises implement concentrated production cuts, aluminum scrap prices may face periodic downward pressure.

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