Weakened Petroleum Coke and Coal Tar Pitch Drag Down Prebaked Anode Prices, Which Were Significantly Lowered in May [[SMM] Weekly Review of Prebaked Anode]

SMM April 30 Report:

Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, the shipment performance of refineries was poor, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises was low, leading to a continued downward trend in petroleum coke prices at refineries. Specifically, the prices of petroleum coke under CNOOC continued to decline this week, with adjustments ranging from 20 to 550 yuan/mt. PetroChina's northeast region operated steadily this week, with the current price range at 4,150-4,650 yuan/mt. However, SMM learned that starting from 00:00 on May 1, 2025, petroleum coke prices in the northeast region will be adjusted downward, with adjustments ranging from 200 to 200 yuan/mt. Some petroleum coke prices of Sinopec remained stable during the week, with minor adjustments made by individual enterprises. The shipment situation of local refineries was differentiated, with low-sulphur petroleum coke prices continuing to decline, while medium- and high-sulphur coke prices remained largely stable. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries was approximately 2,521 yuan/mt, down 0.04% from last Thursday. In the coal tar pitch market, prices continued to decline this week. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 3,803 yuan/mt, down 8.79% from last Thursday. Overall, the cost side of prebaked anodes continued to loosen.

From the supply perspective, prebaked anode enterprises conducted production based on orders throughout the year. This week, the industry's operating rate remained stable, and the overall market supply was maintained at a relatively stable level. In terms of demand, with the southward shift of aluminum capacity in Shandong and the regional adjustment of aluminum capacity, the overall capacity operated steadily.

Brief Commentary: Recently, the domestic prebaked anode market has shown a dual decline in costs and prices. According to SMM data, as of April 30, the cost of prebaked anodes in China fell to 5,065 yuan/mt, down 2.96% from last Thursday. This change stems from the weakening prices of core raw materials such as petroleum coke and coal tar pitch, significantly loosening the support from the raw material side. The decline in costs has effectively improved the profitability of enterprises, with most producers now achieving profits, although profit margins are relatively limited, generally maintained within 200 yuan/mt. From the perspective of market prices, prebaked anode prices in May saw a significant correction: the tender price of a large aluminum plant in Shandong fell by 266 yuan/mt WoW; a large domestic prebaked anode sales company also synchronously lowered its sales pricing, with a WoW decline of 466 yuan/mt. In the raw material market, the petroleum coke market has become a focus of attention. As month-end approaches, despite some refineries entering maintenance periods, providing a certain floor support for petroleum coke prices, downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and pre-holiday stockpiling demand failed to effectively boost the market. Due to the continued weakness in downstream demand, petroleum coke prices still face significant downward pressure. SMM expects that in the short term, petroleum coke prices will be generally stable with slight fall. Looking ahead, the market trend of prebaked anodes will still be influenced by fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in downstream demand. It is necessary to continuously monitor relevant dynamics to grasp market trends in a timely manner.

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