Stockpiling before Labour Day holiday weaker than expected, SHFE tin prices remain rangebound [SMM Tin Lunchtime Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on April 30, 2025

As of midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2506 closed at 260,870 yuan/mt, down 0.13% from the previous settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range was 260,080-264,700 yuan/mt, with cautious market sentiment. The most-traded LME tin contract was temporarily quoted at $31,890/mt, down 0.55%, and the import window remained closed.

Expectations of Loose Supply in the Long Term: The resumption process of Myanmar's production was clarified at the meeting, with incremental supply expected to be released in late June. The full resumption of production at the Bisie mine in the DRC is approaching, and market concerns about increased supply pressure after Q2 have weighed on the confidence of bulls.

Demand Side: Pre-holiday stockpiling was weaker than expected, and structural divergence continued.

Weak Pre-holiday Restocking: As the Labour Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have mainly placed small orders based on rigid demand, with a daily average trading volume of only 40-60 mt. High prices have dampened the purchase willingness of PV welding strip enterprises, while orders for AI servers and semiconductors remained resilient. The marginal support effect of the 75.81% operating rate of solder in March has weakened.