》Check SMM's aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis
SMM News on April 29:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,935 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,965 yuan/mt, a low of 19,880 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,930 yuan/mt, down 0.00%. Trading volume was 74,100 lots, and open interest was 188,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: From a macro perspective, a series of domestic policies have played a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market, and the favorable domestic macroeconomic environment remains unchanged. In overseas markets, Trump's policy stance has been inconsistent, and there are still many uncertainties from his stance to policy implementation. On the fundamental side, the cost side of the aluminum industry has remained stable, while the demand side has shown signs of structural recovery. Benefiting from the continuous influx of new orders in May, there has been an increase in stocking demand for raw materials such as aluminum ingots and billets ahead of the holiday. The reduction in domestic aluminum ingot inventory has provided support for aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, according to SMM's data on aluminum ingot inventory in three domestic regions, as of April 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in these three regions was 512,000 mt, down 15,800 mt from the previous day. However, suppliers are actively selling at higher prices, and it is expected that the downward space for the premium before the holiday will be relatively limited. According to inventory data released on April 29, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 mt or 0.48% to 417,575 mt, the lowest level since February 2023. Overall, whether substantial easing in Sino-US trade can be achieved remains to be seen. In the short term, the imbalance between bullish and bearish factors is still evident. As the transition between the off-season and peak season approaches and the PV installation rush nears its end, there are expectations of a decline in subsequent orders for aluminum downstream industries. The momentum for aluminum prices to rise sharply again is insufficient, and it is expected that domestic aluminum prices will mainly oscillate before the holiday.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,826 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,832 yuan/mt, a low of 2,756 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,766 yuan/mt, down 2.26%. Trading volume was 292,000 lots, and open interest was 269,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: Alumina prices oscillated downward during the day. Last week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, news of new maintenance and production cuts emerged, with both increases and decreases in alumina's operating capacity. Overall, the weekly operating capacity rebounded slightly. As of last Thursday, according to SMM statistics, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million mt/year, up 740,000 mt/year WoW. Due to the concentration of maintenance and production cuts, alumina's operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, tightening the supply of spot alumina. As a result, spot alumina prices have stopped falling, with a slight rebound in north China. It is necessary to continuously track the progress of alumina's maintenance capacity resuming production, the commissioning progress of new capacity, and news of additional maintenance and production cuts. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate mainly.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
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