[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On April 29, the premium of domestic refined nickel fell, and SHFE nickel prices weakened during the day

SMM Nickel News on April 29:

Macro News:

(1) The final value of the US one-year inflation rate expectation surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest level since 1980, marking a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points or more in inflation expectations for four consecutive months. Long-term inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April. The immediate forecast for the core CPI inflation rate is 2.941%. Although this figure is lower than the core PCE inflation rate, it remains above the US Fed's long-term target.

(2) Sources said that the European Central Bank's (ECB) policymakers are increasingly confident in cutting interest rates in June in response to the continued decline in inflation, but will not make a substantial cut. Last week, several ECB Governing Council members attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings, discussing the potential deterioration of the eurozone and global economies due to US tariffs. Meanwhile, the latest economic data released in the eurozone also reflected this phenomenon. As for inflation, there is no indication that it has worsened due to tariffs for the time being.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 124,350-126,850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 125,600 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the mainstream spot premiums of Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 1,900-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the premiums and discounts of Russian nickel is 0-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) edged up 0.16% to 124,890 yuan/mt during the night session, but was suppressed by macro sentiment during the day session, continuing to weaken intra-day. As of 11:30, the closing price was 124,130 yuan/mt, down approximately 0.4% from the settlement price of the previous trading day.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in June have intensified, coupled with the rebound in US manufacturing data, putting pressure on LME nickel prices denominated in US dollars. Currently, nickel prices are influenced by a combination of multiple macro factors, including the Sino-US tariff game, policy adjustments in Indonesia, and tightening US dollar liquidity, with cost support and surplus pressure coexisting.