Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports Rebounded Significantly MoM in March, with Processing Fee Hikes Finally Taking Effect [[SMM Analysis]]

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SMM News on April 27, 2025:

According to the latest customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in March 2025 reached 268,900 mt, up 36.4% MoM and down 3.3% YoY. The significant MoM increase from February was mainly due to overseas end-users' inventory levels having been depleted to low levels after the concentrated "rush exports" in November 2024, coupled with the conclusion of new price negotiations, leading export enterprises to re-sign annual long-term contracts.

By country, the target export countries for aluminum plate/sheet and strip in March 2025 remained relatively stable, with Mexico, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand still ranking at the top. The combined exports to these four countries in March totaled 101,000 mt, accounting for approximately 33.56% of the total aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports.

By specific product, can stock exports in March reached 115,400 mt (closely tied to the tariff code "76061220"), with an average export price of $3,583/mt, up $266/mt from November. Historical price data shows that the average LME spot settlement price in March was $2,657/mt, up $74/mt from November. This roughly indicates an average increase of $266/mt in overall processing fees. After converting to a 13% VAT tax cost, overseas customers essentially bore 7-7.5 percentage points, with the final price increase plan now confirmed.

Overall, in 2025, the Chinese aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry started the year with moderate performance. After overseas customers' inventory levels were depleted to low levels, restocking demand was released, coupled with the completion of annual long-term contract re-signings, leading to a significant rebound in aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in March. However, the overseas market is highly uncertain, with factors such as overseas end-use demand, trade frictions, and local conflicts potentially causing sudden impacts on the export situation of aluminum plate/sheet and strip. Therefore, aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in April-May are expected to remain stable or slightly contract compared to March, but long-term export prospects cannot be overly optimistic.

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