Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy declined by 3% YoY in Q1 2025 [SMM Analysis]

Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data for March 2025. According to customs data:
In March 2025, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy reached 89,500 mt, down 7.1% YoY and 2.6% MoM. From January to March 2025, cumulative imports totaled 281,000 mt, down 3.0% YoY.
In March 2025, exports of unwrought aluminum alloy reached 18,200 mt, up 3.9% YoY and 4.0% MoM. From January to March 2025, cumulative exports totaled 53,800 mt, down 8.0% YoY.

In terms of import sources, the top five countries for China's unwrought aluminum alloy imports in Q1 2025 were Malaysia (125,900 mt), Russia (46,400 mt), Thailand (37,500 mt), South Korea (9,800 mt), and Vietnam (9,600 mt), accounting for 44.8%, 16.5%, 13.3%, 3.5%, and 3.4% respectively, with the combined share of the remaining countries being less than 20%.

Overall, the monthly imports of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots in Q1 2025 were all below 100,000 mt, showing a slight YoY decline of 3%. This was mainly due to the continuous decline in domestic aluminum prices since mid-November last year, which dragged down the price of ADC12, while overseas prices remained stable, coupled with the depreciation of the RMB, leading to a continuous squeeze on the profit margins of imported ADC12 and resulting in losses by the end of January. In February, import profits briefly recovered to the break-even line, but were constrained by the further decline in domestic ADC12 prices, causing imports to fall back into losses. Currently, overseas quotes are in the range of US$2,430-2,450/mt, with instant import losses reaching 700-900 yuan/mt. The import window remains closed, and it is expected that aluminum alloy imports will continue to operate at a low level below 100,000 mt in Q2.