According to customs data, China's copper cathode imports in March 2025 reached 308,800 mt. SMM compiled data showed that China's imports from major producers of EQ copper cathodes amounted to 228,400 mt, accounting for 73.95% of the total, the highest proportion since 2022.
By country, the major contributors to March imports were the DRC and Russia, followed by Kazakhstan and the UAE. The most notable in March was Russia's imports exceeding 60,000 mt. According to SMM, a significant amount of Russian copper is expected to continue flowing into China, but the volume is not expected to exceed 60,000 mt per month. Future import volumes are not expected to increase, and the proportion of EQ imports is anticipated to remain around 70%.
The volume of EQ imports continues to increase, yet their prices have been rising consecutively in the domestic trade market. What is the reason for this?
As the US absorbs global copper cathode, the supply from Chile, Peru, and other countries to China has decreased, with a significant reduction in the volume of registered SX-EW brands reaching China. EQ sources from Africa and Russia have played a substitute role. Meanwhile, the supply of secondary copper is tight. As copper prices rise, downstream sectors favor lower-priced EQ sources more, and the continued destocking of EQ sources has driven their prices higher.
Observing the continuous convergence of the price difference between EQ and SX-EW copper provides indicative guidance for the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap. When the prices of EQ and SX-EW copper show a trend of convergence/divergence, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap will also tend to converge/diverge; its indicative guidance for the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap can be advanced by one week.
