Petroleum coke imports in Q1 2025 increased by 10.64% YoY, and imports in Q2 are expected to rise first and then decline [SMM Analysis].

SMM April 25:

According to customs data, China's petroleum coke imports in March 2025 reached 1.1252 million mt, down 4.63% MoM but up 10.64% YoY. The estimated import price of petroleum coke in March was $159.60/mt, up 4.68% MoM and 1.91% YoY. The cumulative import volume of petroleum coke in China in 2025 was approximately 3.5193 million mt, up 5.53% YoY.

In terms of importing countries, the main sources of China's petroleum coke imports in March 2025 were the US, Venezuela, and Russia, with import volumes (import shares) of 352,900 mt (31%), 220,600 mt (20%), and 170,600 mt (15%), respectively.

From the perspective of import prices, the import price of petroleum coke in March 2025 was mainly on the rise, with the average import price at $159.60/mt, up 4.68% MoM and 1.91% YoY. There were 18 source countries/regions for petroleum coke imports this month, with 17 countries showing continuous import volumes. Among them, import prices from Germany, Romania, and Argentina saw significant increases, with the maximum increase exceeding $130/mt.

In Q1 2025, although China's petroleum coke imports showed a MoM decline, they still maintained YoY growth, highlighting the resilience of domestic market demand. Affected by adjustments in fuel oil tariffs and tax rebate policies, domestic refineries faced rising costs, putting pressure on the profitability of delayed coking units and significantly expanding maintenance scales, leading to a continuous contraction in domestic petroleum coke supply. Meanwhile, port inventories continued to decline, intensifying supply-side pressure. On the demand side, downstream markets performed actively in Q1. The operating rate of prebaked anode enterprises steadily rebounded, and holiday stockpiling demand boosted purchasing enthusiasm. The negative electrode material market, supported by strong order performance, combined with concentrated stockpiling during the Chinese New Year holiday and price increase expectations driven by policy factors, saw significant growth in demand for petroleum coke. Both supply and demand sides provided a solid foundation for petroleum coke imports, and traders performed well in LME purchases.

Entering Q2, refinery maintenance further increased, and domestic supply continued to decline. However, with the arrival of previously shipped goods, port petroleum coke inventories began to enter a buildup cycle. Demand-side performance was weak, with downstream enterprises lacking purchasing motivation, and US-China trade frictions also cooled traders' buying sentiment, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, considering shipping schedules and the arrival of previous orders, SMM expects petroleum coke imports in Q2 to still increase MoM. In the long term, with the continuation of trade frictions and further adjustments in domestic market supply and demand, subsequent petroleum coke imports are expected to decline.