The support from the raw material end continued to loosen, costs declined, and future market prices turned weaker [SMM Prebaked Anode Weekly Review]

SMM April 24 News: Raw material side, in the petroleum coke market, refinery shipments showed mediocre performance during the week, with downstream companies exhibiting low buying sentiment, leading to a generally stable with slight fall in refinery petroleum coke prices. Specifically, CNOOC's petroleum coke prices experienced a slight decline this week, with adjustments ranging from 70-200 yuan/mt. PetroChina's north-east China region maintained stable operations this week, with current price ranges at 4,150-4,650 yuan/mt; Sinopec's petroleum coke prices remained mostly stable during the week, with minor adjustments by individual companies. Local refineries' shipments were average, with petroleum coke prices generally stable with slight fall. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries was approximately 2,522 yuan/mt, down 0.79% WoW. In the coal tar pitch market, prices continued to decline this week, with the average price at 4,170 yuan/mt as of Thursday, down 7.06% from last Thursday. Overall, the cost side of prebaked anode continued to loosen.

Supply side, prebaked anode companies produced based on orders throughout the year, with the industry's operating rate remaining stable this week, maintaining overall market supply at a relatively stable level. Demand side, with the southward shift of capacity in Shandong and regional adjustments in aluminum capacity, overall capacity operated mainly steadily.

Brief review: During the week, both petroleum coke and coal tar prices in the raw material market weakened, loosening the support for prebaked anode's raw material side. According to SMM data, as of April 24, the cost of prebaked anode in China was about 5,225 yuan/mt, down approximately 1.44% from last Thursday. Regionally, the market demand in Shandong significantly weakened due to a large company's strategy of shifting capacity southward. Meanwhile, as the month-end approached, downstream companies of petroleum coke generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a decline in market activity. Although some refineries entered maintenance periods, providing some bottom support for petroleum coke prices, under the current supply-demand pattern, petroleum coke prices lacked substantial upward momentum and are expected to maintain a fluctuating adjustment trend in the short term. Additionally, based on the fluctuations in the raw material market during the last pricing cycle, SMM's calculations and surveys predict that next month's prices will turn from rising to falling, with adjustments around 400 yuan/mt.

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