In March 2025, the cumulative export of domestic aluminum extrusion surged 81.31% MoM, while it slightly decreased 1.89% YoY. [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, April 23:

According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76.0429 million, 76.043 million) reached 71,800 mt in March 2025, down 1.89% YoY but up 81.31% MoM.

From the perspective of export regional distribution, Guangdong continued to maintain an absolute leading position, accounting for 48.60% of monthly exports, followed by Shandong (12.07%) and Jiangsu (8.51%). Notably, the top 10 exporting provinces all showed positive MoM growth, with Liaoning (+1,722.02%) and Hunan (+201.00%) standing out, mainly benefiting from the recovery of business as export enterprises completed new rounds of order negotiations and long-term contract renewals.

The export destination pattern remained stable, with Southeast Asia still being the core market. Vietnam retained the top spot with an 11.06% share, followed by Malaysia (6.63%) and Israel (5.39%). The current export growth is mainly supported by the recovery of export business, but against the backdrop of renewed international trade frictions and the narrowing import profit/loss ratio weakening export competitiveness, market expectations have turned cautious.

Overall, China's aluminum extrusion exports in March 2025 showed a significant MoM increase. According to the SMM survey, as overseas markets enter a window period for tariff policy adjustments, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers has intensified. Although there is potential demand growth in East Asia, constrained by the dual factors of slowing global economic growth and escalating trade barriers, buyers have generally adopted conservative strategies, making it difficult to see large-scale demand in the short term. Aluminum semis exports are expected to shift into a MoM downward trend in April, with subsequent attention needed on the dynamic adjustments of tariff policies in target markets.

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