The tariff war continued to escalate, with both SHFE aluminum and alumina experiencing declines. [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief]

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, April 22:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,900 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,900 yuan/mt, a low of 19,645 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,745 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. The trading volume was 148,000 lots, and the open interest was 214,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Macro-wise, the domestic macro-positive sentiment remains unchanged, but the impact of the US tariff war persists, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. Fundamentally, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports spot premiums, providing a strong bottom for aluminum futures, with the futures market fluctuating. In terms of aluminum consumption, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing sector experienced a slight correction, with the exception of aluminum wire and cable, where the operating rate slightly weakened. Additionally, subsequent orders are expected to decline, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,850 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,855 yuan/mt, a low of 2,790 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,811 yuan/mt, down 0.32%. The trading volume was 298,000 lots, and the open interest was 226,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Due to concentrated maintenance at alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina has continued to decline. As of last week, the operating capacity of alumina dropped to 82.88 million mt/year, leading to a tightening of alumina supply in the short term and a slowdown in the decline of alumina prices, with a slight rebound in northern alumina prices. However, as maintenance gradually concludes and new capacities come online, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound. In the medium and long term, alumina prices remain under pressure. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]