The US Conducts Critical Mineral Survey, Copper Prices Drop Slightly [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,172.5/mt, fluctuated during the session, with the highest price reaching $9,186.5/mt and the lowest price dropping to $9,085.5/mt, showing an overall downward trend. It finally closed at $9,137.0/mt, down 0.91%, with a trading volume of 14,561 and open interest at 292,708. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 75,500 yuan/mt, with the price first fluctuating upward to the highest price of 75,950 yuan/mt, then fluctuating downward to the lowest price of 75,470 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 75,830 yuan/mt, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 41,547 and open interest at 152,081.

【SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary】News: (1) On April 15 local time, the White House stated that US President Trump signed an executive order to investigate the national security risks posed by the US's reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products.

(2) On April 15, Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted a survey in Beijing. He emphasized the need to thoroughly implement the important instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping on comprehensively expanding domestic demand, calmly respond to the difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, promote consumption and expand domestic demand with greater efforts, strengthen the domestic circulation, and further unleash the vitality and potential of China's super-large market.

Spot: (1) Shanghai: On April 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2504 contract were reported at parity to a premium of 80 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt MoM. Today, the market will officially start quoting against the SHFE copper 2505 contract, and it is expected to show a trend of moving downwards after a higher opening. Suppliers may continue to start quoting from a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with transactions likely at a premium of 50-80 yuan/mt.

(2) Guangdong: On April 15, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at 0 yuan/mt to a premium of 110 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 55 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt MoM. Overall, the market was not active on the delivery day, and suppliers had to lower the premium to facilitate sales.

(3) Imported copper: On April 15, warrant prices were $84-90/mt, QP May, with the average price flat MoM; B/L prices were $100-108/mt, QP May, with the average price flat MoM. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $55-65/mt, QP May, with the average price flat MoM, with quotes referring to cargoes arriving in mid to late April. Overall, seller activity warmed up compared to the previous day, but market transactions were generally flat.

(4) Secondary copper: On April 15, secondary copper raw material prices remained unchanged MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 70,800-71,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 664 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 605 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, today, major secondary copper raw material yards in Foshan, Guangdong, hardly acquired any secondary copper raw materials to replenish inventory. Some traders reported that they were unable to purchase secondary copper raw materials for 3-4 days and could only purchase copper cathode to complete the daily acquisition task.

(5) Inventory: On April 15, LME copper inventories increased by 4,650 mt to 212,475 mt; on April 15, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 2,840 mt to 92,209 mt.

Price: On the macro front, Trump stated that the suspension of tariffs was due to a transition period and the need for flexibility. The US launched an investigation into the national security risks posed by its reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products. US Vice President Vance said that the US and the UK are very likely to reach a "great deal" on trade, but according to US media, there has been little progress in the negotiations. The EU expects US tariffs to remain in place. With tariff concerns slightly rising, copper prices closed slightly lower overnight. On the fundamental side, the market was quiet as it approached the delivery date, with spot quotes moving downwards after a higher opening, and downstream consumption was relatively sluggish. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain weak today.

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【The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.】