Goldman Sachs: Lowered Aluminum Price Forecast Due to Weaker Economic Growth Outlook

On Monday, April 14, Goldman Sachs stated in a report that it lowered its aluminum price forecast for this year, as its economists revised down the economic growth projections for major global economies, including the US.

The report expects aluminum prices to reach $2,300/mt by December, down from the previous forecast of $2,650/mt. By Q3 of this year, aluminum prices are expected to drop to an average of $2,000/mt.

On Monday, the LME three-month aluminum price was approximately $2,392/mt.

Goldman Sachs also predicts that the global aluminum market will experience a supply surplus of 580,000 mt this year, compared to its previous forecast of a shortage of 76,000 mt. By December 2026, aluminum prices are expected to reach $2,720/mt, lower than the previous forecast of $3,100/mt. The average aluminum price in 2027 is projected to be $2,800/mt, with the market expected to face a supply surplus of 722,000 mt.

The investment bank also noted that global aluminum demand growth rates for this year and next are expected to be 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively, compared to its previous estimates of 2.6% and 2.4%.