【SMM Steel Import and Export Analysis】Steel Exports Surpass 10 Million mt in March, What’s Next for April?

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China's steel exports in March 2025 reached 10.456 million mt, with cumulative exports from January to March totaling 27.429 million mt, up 6.3% YoY. In March, China imported 501,000 mt of steel, with cumulative imports from January to March reaching 1.55 million mt.

• China’s Steel Exports Surpass 10 Million mt Again in March
China’s steel exports in March increased by 29.8% MoM! Since February, the US has intensified anti-dumping measures against China, and Vietnam, China’s largest export destination, has also initiated anti-dumping actions, making the domestic export environment increasingly challenging. However, on one hand, market participants actively engaged in export orders, with a noticeable "rush to export" phenomenon. On the other hand, Vietnam’s anti-dumping measures targeted HRC below 1,880mm, but unrestricted wide coils could still be exported normally, so the overall impact was relatively small. According to SMM shipping data, Vietnam remained the second-largest export destination for Chinese steel in March, while export traders expanded other channels, such as South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. As a result, China’s steel exports surpassed 10 million mt again in March!

Top 6 Steel Importers in China in March 2025

Data source: SMM shipping data

• China’s Steel Imports Remain Low in March
On the import side, China imported 501,000 mt of steel in March, down 18.8% YoY, maintaining a net export situation. In the first three months, China’s net steel exports reached 25.879 million mt.

• Short-Term Steel Export Outlook
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2025 was 49.6%, down 0.4% MoM, indicating a slightly weaker recovery in global manufacturing compared to the previous month. Based on China’s manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index in March was 49%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, reflecting continued improvement in overseas order-taking.

Data from the World Steel Association shows that global crude steel production in February 2025 for the 69 countries monitored by the association was 144.7 million mt, down 3.4% YoY. China’s production fell by 3.3% YoY, while production in other regions outside China was 65.78 million mt, down 6.16% YoY.

As of April 11, 2025, the FOB export prices of HRC in India, Turkey, and the CIS were $565/mt, $590/mt, and $485/mt, respectively, while China’s FOB export price for HRC was $462/mt. Currently, China’s HRC export prices are $103/mt, $128/mt, and $23/mt lower than those of other countries, with price advantages up 312%, 88.24%, and 27.78% MoM, respectively.

The US’s arbitrary tariff actions have led to a tendency for other overseas markets to follow suit. According to SMM’s latest steel mill export scheduling, planned exports in March fell by 3.5% compared to actual exports in February. However, overseas supply has not yet surged, and China’s export order-taking has improved. Therefore, despite the expansion of overseas barriers, the decline in exports has been better than expected. Meanwhile, domestic crackdowns on "fake exports" are strict, with rumors that export declarations will require relevant tax payment certificates starting May 1, leading to a continued "rush to export" phenomenon domestically. According to SMM shipping data, as of April 11, China’s port departures in April totaled 6.2278 million mt. Considering that major export traders and steel mills often set annual export targets, "volume discount" scenarios may still exist even in adverse external conditions. SMM expects steel exports in April to decline slightly from the high base of the previous month, but the decline may be limited! A more significant drop in exports may be seen in May!