SHFE Tin Prices Continue to Rebound, Spot Market Trading Pace Slows Down [SMM Tin Midday Review]

April 14, 2025 Midday Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract

In the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) continued its rebound, surging rapidly after opening and reaching a high of $262,280/mt during the session. It closed at $260,480/mt at midday, up 2.48%, leading the gains in the domestic base metal sector. Market activity was brisk, with open interest slightly declining, and some longs showed signs of profit-taking. Caution is advised for increased volatility in the afternoon session.

Signs of a temporary easing in US-China trade tensions emerged as the US announced exemptions for "reciprocal tariffs" on products such as semiconductors and integrated circuits. This has boosted expectations for a recovery in the global semiconductor industry chain, enhancing the demand outlook for tin as a core raw material for electronic solder.

Expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have unsettled the market, with CME data showing the probability of a June rate cut rising to 63.5%. The weakening US dollar index has further supported metal prices.

The resumption of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa State has been delayed again due to earthquake impacts, with expectations for tin ore supply recovery dampened by transportation channel repairs and policy risks. Caution is advised against the risk of a "false breakout," as the current market exhibits a "strong expectations, weak reality" characteristic, with high prices gradually suppressing downstream procurement.