Driven by the continuous rise in spot gold prices, Hong Kong-listed gold stocks maintained their strong performance. As of press time, Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), Shandong Gold (01787.HK), and Zhaojin Gold (01818.HK) rose by 15.63%, 8.49%, 7.18%, and 6.95%, respectively.
Note: The performance of gold stocks
It is worth noting that gold stocks strengthened for the third consecutive trading day, with leading gains from Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold, which surged over 30% this week.
On the news front, the US March unadjusted CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, hitting a six-month low and below the market expectation of 2.6%. This data reinforced market expectations for the US Fed to initiate an interest rate cut in June, with the CME "Fed Watch" showing the market's pricing probability for a June rate cut rising to 98%.
Meanwhile, the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have caused global supply chain disruptions, leading to a surge in investor demand for safe-haven assets, pushing COMEX gold futures prices above the $3,200/oz mark, with a cumulative increase of over 22% this year.
Note: The trend of COMEX gold futures prices
Institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of gold prices
Deutsche Bank's latest report raised its gold price forecasts for this year and next to $3,139/oz and $3,700/oz, respectively, and expects prices to reach $3,350/oz in Q4. The bank emphasized that despite increased short-term market volatility, the bullish logic for gold remains solid, especially as central banks' gold purchasing demand surged from 10% in 2022 to 24%, far exceeding their demand for net bond issuance (7%-10%).
BOC Securities analysis pointed out that the growth potential of global central bank gold reserves remains considerable, coupled with downward pressure on real interest rates, the value of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue to rise.
Carsten Menke, Head of Commodity Research at Julius Baer, noted that the "supply chain earthquake" triggered by tariff policies could severely impact US economic growth, and the value of gold as the ultimate safe-haven tool is being repriced.
