SMM HRC Weekly Balance: Production May Gradually Increase, Social Inventory Decline Narrowed This Week

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Apr 3, 2025 10:32
  • SMM HRC Weekly Balance

 

  • This week, HRC production fluctuated rangebound.

This week, steel mills in south China resumed production after maintenance, while some mills in the north continued maintenance, resulting in a rangebound fluctuation in HRC production MoM.

  • This week, the decline in HRC social inventory narrowed.

This week, the SMM survey of 86 warehouses (large sample) nationwide showed HRC social inventory at 4.0818 million mt, down 98,800 mt MoM, a decrease of 2.36% MoM, and down 6.09% YoY. This week, national social inventory continued to decline, but the rate of decline narrowed. By region, the decline in the south China market was significantly higher than in east and north China markets, while central and north-east China saw a slight inventory buildup. [SMM Steel]

  • This week, HRC in-plant inventory declined MoM.

This week, steel mills accelerated shipments, and in-plant inventory continued to decline.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM Large Sample Social Inventory of Building Materials] Price Rally Drives Inventory Reduction, Decline in Building Materials Social Inventory Slightly Widened This Period
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[SMM Large Sample Social Inventory of Building Materials] Price Rally Drives Inventory Reduction, Decline in Building Materials Social Inventory Slightly Widened This Period
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM Large Sample Social Inventory of Building Materials] Price Rally Drives Inventory Reduction, Decline in Building Materials Social Inventory Slightly Widened This Period
[SMM Large Sample Social Inventory of Building Materials] Price Rally Drives Inventory Reduction, Decline in Building Materials Social Inventory Slightly Widened This Period
According to an SMM survey, the destocking pace of total social inventory of building materials accelerated slightly this period. As of September 3, 2026, SMM building materials social inventory stood at 5.458 million mt, down 78,900 mt WoW, a decline of 1.43%.
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๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€์‚ฌ์†”, 2027 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„์— ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์„ํƒ„ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์ถ•์†Œ ๊ณ„ํšโ€ฆ2028๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ž์ฒด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3,400๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ใ€‘
ใ€์‚ฌ์†”, 2027 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„์— ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์„ํƒ„ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์ถ•์†Œ ๊ณ„ํšโ€ฆ2028๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ž์ฒด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3,400๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ใ€‘
๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ ์‚ฌ์†”์€ ์ œ3์ž ๊ณต๊ธ‰์—…์ฒด๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ์˜ ์„ํƒ„ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋™์‹œ์— ์„ธ์ฟค๋‹ค ์šด์˜ ์‹œ์„ค์˜ ์›๋ฃŒ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ž์ฒด ์„ํƒ„ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ๋Š˜๋ฆด ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„์— ์ž์ฒด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ 2,840๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ์„ํƒ„์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” 2027 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„์— 3,000๋งŒ~3,200๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ ํ›„ 2028๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ 3,400๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚  ์ „๋ง์ด๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ ์‚ฌ์†”์€ ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์„ํƒ„ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์ด 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ 880๋งŒ ํ†ค์—์„œ 2027 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ 500๋งŒ~700๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” 180๋งŒ~380๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์ฆ‰ ์•ฝ 20.5%~43.2% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ ์ˆ˜์น˜๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์ฃผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์†”์ด ์™ธ๋ถ€ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์„ํƒ„์„ ์ž์ฒด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ „์ฒด ์„ํƒ„ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๋™์ผํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Œ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ž์ฒด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์„ํƒ„ ๋น„์ค‘์„ ๋†’์ด๋ฉด ์„ํƒ„ ํ’ˆ์งˆ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์›๋ฃŒ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋น„์šฉ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ์†”์€ ํŠธ์œ„์ŠคํŠธ๋“œ๋ผ์•„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์šฉ ์„ํƒ„ ์„ธ์ฒ™ ์„ค๋น„๋ฅผ ํƒˆ์„ ์‹œ์„ค๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด 10์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ๋ฅผ ํˆฌ์žํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์‹œ์„ค์€ ํ˜„์žฌ 12% ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์˜ ์นจ๊ฐ•๋ฌผ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ฐ€๊ณต ์„ํƒ„์„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์„ํƒ„ ํ’ˆ์งˆ ๊ฐœ์„ , ๊ฐ€์Šคํ™”๊ธฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ํ–ฅ์ƒ, 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ ์ •๊ธฐ ์ •๋น„ ๋ฏธ์‹ค์‹œ ๋“ฑ์ด ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•ด ์„ธ์ฟค๋‹ค ์šด์˜ ์‹œ์„ค์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 5๋…„ ๋งŒ์— ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜์ธ 720๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2027 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ ์˜ˆ์ •๋œ ์ •๊ธฐ ์ •๋น„๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•  ๋•Œ, ํ•ด๋‹น ์‹œ์„ค์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 720๋งŒ~740๋งŒ ํ†ค ์‚ฌ์ด์ผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋ง๋œ๋‹ค. ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ž๋ณธ ์ง€์ถœ์€ 2024 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ 29์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ์—์„œ 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ 41์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2027 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„์—๋Š” ๊ฐฑ์‹  ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•ด ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ 10์–ต~15์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์†”์€ 2028๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ๊ฐ€์Šค ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฐ์—… ๊ณ ๊ฐ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฐ€๊ต ๊ณต๊ธ‰์›์œผ๋กœ ์„ํƒ„์—์„œ ์ถ”์ถœํ•œ ๋ฉ”ํƒ„ ํ’๋ถ€ ๊ฐ€์Šค ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฒ€ํ†  ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ํ™•๋ณด์™€ ๊ทœ์ œ ํ‰๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋” ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์•„์ง ์ตœ์ข… ํˆฌ์ž ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค.
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SMM HRC Weekly Balance: Production May Gradually Increase, Social Inventory Decline Narrowed This Week - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)