The transaction price of polysilicon is under downward pressure, while the price trend of wafers remains strong. [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM April 2 News:

Silica

Price: Silica prices remained stable. Entering April, as some manufacturers in southwest China that are set to resume production in May have started to restock raw materials, the overall demand for silica raw materials is expected to improve, and future demand for raw materials is anticipated to turn positive. Currently, the mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Jiangxi is 430-460 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Inner Mongolia is 350-380 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Hubei is 400-450 yuan/mt.

Production: The supply side of silica is normal, but as downstream silicon metal plants continue to operate at low levels, overall demand remains weak, and production supply remains loose.

Inventory: Some silicon plants in southwest China have recently started to purchase raw materials for restocking, but the recent production cuts in north China and the expectations of production cuts in some small silicon plants have led to lower restocking demand.

Silicon Metal

Price: Spot silicon metal prices remained stable. Yesterday, the quotation for above-standard #553 silicon in east China was 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt. The main futures contract fluctuated downward. The market trading atmosphere was not active, and downstream purchases were made as needed.

Production:

On the supply side, some capacity of top-tier enterprises in north China has been cut, and silicon metal production showed a WoW decline.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the national social inventory of silicon metal on March 28 totaled 604,000 mt, up 13,000 mt WoW. Among them, social ordinary warehouses were 139,000 mt, up 4,000 mt WoW, and social delivery warehouses were 465,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 9,000 mt WoW.

Silicone

Price

DMC: The current quotation is 14,000-14,800 yuan/mt. This week, the market price appeared stable but actually declined. Enterprise quotations remained firm, but there were many transactions with discounts, and some small orders were even transacted below 14,000 yuan/mt.

D4: The current quotation is 14,500-16,100 yuan/mt. This week, prices remained stable, but a slight pullback is expected in the future.

107 Silicone Rubber: The current quotation is 14,200-15,000 yuan/mt. This week, domestic market prices trended lower. Rubber companies started to offer discounts for shipments, and the market transaction center quickly shifted downward, with prices expected to approach 14,000 yuan/mt in the future.

Raw Rubber: The current quotation is 14,800-15,500 yuan/mt. This week, the low-end transaction price in the market slightly declined by 100 yuan/mt.

Silicone Oil: The current quotation is 15,500-16,400 yuan/mt. The market transaction center shifted downward, and the mainstream transaction price was around 15,800 yuan/mt.

Production:

Recently, some monomer companies have started to halt for maintenance, and the operating rate has dropped to around 63%.

Inventory:

Monomer companies have accumulated a large amount of inventory, with some companies holding inventory close to one month, and downstream purchasing willingness is low.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the mainstream transaction price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 39-45 yuan/kg. This week, polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable, market transactions gradually expanded, but transaction prices were weak.

Production

In March, polysilicon companies operated relatively stably. In April, there may be some new additions compared to the expected wafer production schedule, and polysilicon supply is slightly insufficient, with the industry chain in tight balance.

Inventory

Some orders were picked up earlier, and recent transactions gradually expanded, with inventory slightly declining.

Wafer

Price

The market price of N-type 18X wafers is 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210RN wafers is 1.4-1.55 yuan/piece. Wafer prices have risen, and currently, due to the earthquake, wafer prices across all sizes have seen some increases.

Production

Actual wafer production in March declined slightly, expected to be just over 50GW. Wafer production in April will increase, but top-tier enterprises are cautious about increasing production due to market considerations and the impact of the earthquake, with production expected to be below 60GW.

Inventory

In March, battery production was still higher than wafer production, and future demand is expected to improve, with destocking expected in the future.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

This week, high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. The domestic price of inner-layer sand is 60,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 35,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt. This week, market quotations remained stable, and some crucible companies made purchases as needed, but overall trading volume remained low.

Production

This week, domestic operations remained stable with no changes, and some newly invested companies are gradually ramping up production.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory continues to increase, downstream crucible demand is relatively average, and recently, due to the earthquake in Myanmar, wafer production has shifted downward, weakening the demand for quartz sand.

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