Tariff Issues Loom, Nonferrous Metals Hold Steady [Institutional Commentary]

【Copper】

On Tuesday, SHFE copper reclaimed 80,000 yuan, and today's spot copper was quoted at 80,015 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong both at 10 yuan/mt. The price difference between primary metal and scrap was around 1,400 yuan. Domestic consumption is in the peak season, and April's smelter output is likely to decline month-on-month, while exports may continue, indicating that the domestic destocking trend will persist. In the evening, attention will be on US manufacturing data, as the market is highly sensitive to US tariff actions. Midstream and downstream players are pricing on dips, and copper still has the potential to rise.

【Aluminum & Alumina】

Today, SHFE aluminum rebounded slightly, with spot prices at a slight discount. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 27,000 mt and 24,000 mt respectively compared to Monday, with the destocking speed slightly faster than in previous years. The market expects peak season consumption, and with inventory reduction, the focus is on the sustainability of spot price recovery. After a significant cost reduction, higher profits require a larger deficit expectation. SHFE aluminum is mainly fluctuating above 20,000 yuan, with short-term pressure from overseas macro factors, and support looking at the annual line. Alumina operating capacity is fluctuating at historically high levels, and although the scale of production cuts and maintenance has expanded, it is difficult to change the long-term loose trend. Domestic and overseas spot prices remain under pressure. Alumina is unlikely to stop falling until larger-scale production cuts are triggered, and the downside space will depend on the direction of overseas ore.

【Zinc】

Downstream buying sentiment has improved significantly, with SMM 0# zinc quotations shifting from discounts to premiums of 60 yuan/mt against the futures market. Some shorts have taken profits, and SHFE zinc rebounded but did not recover the previous day's losses, facing pressure above the 60-day moving average. The medium-term downtrend remains unchanged. In April, zinc concentrate TC continued to rise, and smelters have shown good production enthusiasm after turning losses into profits. "Rush exports" and accumulated tariffs are weighing on export prospects, while domestic demand relies on infrastructure and manufacturing to boost, with the real estate recovery momentum unclear. Consumption shows resilience but lacks incremental growth. In the short term, the downside is temporarily seen at the 23,000 yuan/mt integer level, while the medium-term strategy remains to rebound and short.

【Lead】

Secondary lead smelters are rushing for raw materials, and recyclers are reluctant to sell, with scrap battery prices not following the lead price correction. Secondary lead smelters are also reluctant to sell, narrowing the price difference between primary metal and scrap to 25 yuan/mt. Although there are disturbances in the operation of primary and secondary lead smelters, the overall level remains high. In the off-season, replacement demand is weakening, and dealers' purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient. Some battery companies are taking holidays ranging from 2 to 7 days during the Qingming Festival. SMM 1# lead quotations are at a real-time discount of 220 yuan/mt against the futures market, which indirectly verifies that downstream purchasing is average. In the short term, consumption and costs are in a tug-of-war, with SHFE lead showing weak directionality and lackluster trading interest. The range is temporarily seen at 17,200-17,800 yuan/mt.

【Nickel & Stainless Steel】

On Monday, SHFE nickel fell again, with active market trading. Jinchuan premiums dropped to 1,450 yuan, while Russian nickel was at a discount of 50 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 150 yuan. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, with the latest quotation at 1,034 yuan per mtu. In terms of inventory, nickel pig iron inventory is at a low level of 23,000 mt, while refined nickel inventory slightly increased to 47,400 mt, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 10,000 mt to 980,000 mt. The initial excitement due to supply-side factors and low prices is gradually coming to an end, with high inventory and weak demand gradually suppressing price trends. The main support factor is concentrated on NPI prices, and if NPI loosens, the decline may intensify. Technically, SHFE nickel has shown a top decline after a rebound, and it is recommended that shorts start to intervene.

【Tin】

SHFE tin increased positions, attempting to rise. Today's spot tin was quoted at 286,400 yuan, with a real-time premium of 830 yuan against the delivery month. The cancellation of the originally scheduled resumption and production meeting in Manxiang by Wa State has again attracted funds to push up tin prices. Continued attention will be paid to the follow-up arrangements for resumption and production in Wa State. After the earthquake in Myanmar, 280,000 yuan has support, and subjectively, it is difficult for SHFE tin to effectively break through 290,000 yuan, requiring strong leadership from LME tin.