Copper fell below 80,000, aluminum fell below 20,500 [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market】During the night session, SHFE copper jumped initially and then pulled back. On Monday morning, it fell below the 80,000 mark, rebounded in the afternoon, but weakened again at the close. The most-traded May contract closed at 79,950, down 0.92%, with a slight decrease in total trading volume and a reduction of over 9,000 in open interest. SHFE aluminum followed a similar trading pattern, with the most-traded May contract closing at 20,480, down 0.63%, and a slight decrease in total trading volume, while open interest remained largely unchanged. Meanwhile, alumina hit a new low in this round of adjustments, with the most-traded May contract closing at 2,936, down 3.61%.

【Analysis】This week is a super week, with important economic data from both China and the US, such as China's manufacturing PMI released this morning and the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data released over the weekend. On April 2, the market will also focus on whether the US will implement "reciprocal tariffs." On Friday, US stocks fell sharply, and on Monday morning, Asian stocks also dropped significantly, followed by European stocks in the afternoon. The market is concerned that if the US implements "reciprocal tariffs," it could trigger a tariff war, posing a major challenge to the global economy. Today, gold hit a new historical high, and the gold-to-copper ratio reached a new high, reflecting strong market risk aversion sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy in recent operations, waiting for the "shoe to drop."

【Valuation】Copper is neutral to slightly high, aluminum is neutral.

【Risk】Macro policies fall short of expectations.