SHFE copper fell below short-term support as positions were reduced, while aluminum opened lower and continued to decline, showing weakness again. [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market】During the night session, SHFE copper opened lower and continued to decline, breaking through the 82,000 integer level. During the day session, it fluctuated downward, showing weakness throughout the day. The most-traded May contract closed at 80,450, down 1.37%, with total trading volume increasing and total open interest decreasing by over 14,000 lots. SHFE aluminum also opened lower and followed a similar trading rhythm as copper. The most-traded May contract closed at 20,580, down 0.96%, with total trading volume increasing and total open interest decreasing by over 7,000 lots.

【Analysis】Today, the US dollar rebounded, creating upward resistance for non-ferrous metals as a whole. For two consecutive trading days, SHFE copper saw a significant reduction of over 10,000 lots, with long positions exiting the market, creating resistance in the futures market. Today, it broke through a key short-term support level, and the adjustment may continue. Long positions that previously gained profits should prepare for hedging or risk avoidance. Meanwhile, aluminum, under the dual pressure of SHFE copper and alumina declines, hit a new low for the period. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support level at 20,500.

【Valuation】Copper: Neutral to High; Aluminum: Neutral

【Risk】Macro policies fall below expectations

(Source: China Fortune Futures)