SMM March 27:
Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data for January-February 2025. According to the customs data:
In January 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy imports were 99,700 mt, down 4.9% YoY and down 5.6% MoM. In February 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy imports were 91,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY and down 7.8% MoM. The cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were 191,500 mt, down 1.0% YoY.
In January 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy exports were 18,100 mt, down 12.9% YoY and down 14.6% MoM. In February 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy exports were 17,500 mt, down 13.1% YoY and down 3.5% MoM. The cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were 35,600 mt, down 13.0% YoY.
The chart below shows the monthly import and export volumes of unwrought aluminum alloy from 2022 to 2025:
China's unwrought aluminum alloy import and export by country for January-February 2025:
In terms of import sources, the top five countries for China's unwrought aluminum alloy imports in January-February 2025 were Malaysia (84,800 mt), Russia (35,300 mt), Thailand (24,900 mt), South Korea (7,300 mt), and Indonesia (5,000 mt), accounting for 44%, 18%, 13%, 4%, and 3% respectively, with the remaining countries accounting for less than 20% of the total.
On the export side, Japan remained the largest export destination for domestic aluminum ingots in the first two months of 2025, accounting for nearly 50%, followed by Mexico and South Korea. The main trade mode was processing trade, accounting for 72%.
Unwrought aluminum alloy imports by registration location for January-February 2025:
Overall, the import volume of unwrought aluminum ingots in January and February 2025 fell below 100,000 mt, with a slight YoY decline in the two-month total. After mid-November last year, domestic aluminum prices began a continuous decline, and ADC12 prices also fell in sync. At the same time, overseas prices fluctuated relatively small, and the US dollar index surged due to Trump's tariff hike policy and the US Fed's hawkish rhetoric, leading to a continuous weakening of the RMB exchange rate. This series of factors compressed the profit margin for importing ADC12, quickly turning a profitable situation into a loss, which persisted until mid-January. Additionally, during the Chinese New Year holiday, market activity decreased, and demand weakened. Multiple unfavourable factors combined, reducing the monthly import volume to below 100,000 mt in January and February. Imports are expected to rebound slightly above 100,000 mt in March, but may decline again after April.
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