SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Review: Weak Supply and Strong Demand, Social Inventory Reduction in Good Condition

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Mar 27, 2025 11:54
ใ€SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Reviewใ€‘Weak Supply and Strong Demand, Social Inventory Destocking in Good Condition
This week, the impact of maintenance significantly weakened, HRC supply fluctuated rangebound. During this period, futures first rose and then fell, market transactions experienced a surge, and traders actively destocked, with social inventory showing a good downward trend. Looking ahead, the number of rolling lines under maintenance and planned for maintenance is relatively small in the short term, supply resistance is expected to rebound, but the space will not expand so quickly. Meanwhile, end-use demand remains resilient, and it is expected that national social inventory will continue to destock in the short term...

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์†์€ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ํšก๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ ์ •๋น„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๊ฐ๋ณ„ํ•œ ์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค [SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์‚ฐ์—… ์ฒด์ธ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ]
19์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์†์€ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ํšก๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ ์ •๋น„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๊ฐ๋ณ„ํ•œ ์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค [SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์‚ฐ์—… ์ฒด์ธ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์†์€ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ํšก๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ ์ •๋น„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๊ฐ๋ณ„ํ•œ ์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค [SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์‚ฐ์—… ์ฒด์ธ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ]
๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์†์€ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ํšก๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ ์ •๋น„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๊ฐ๋ณ„ํ•œ ์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค [SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์‚ฐ์—… ์ฒด์ธ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ]
์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์ฒ ๊ฐ•์žฌ๋Š” ์™„๋งŒํ•œ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ”๊ณ , ์›์ž์žฌ๋Š” ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์›๋ฃŒํƒ„์€ ์–ด๋А ์ •๋„ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฃผ์ค‘ ์‚ฐ์‹œ์„ฑ ํƒ„๊ด‘ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ์™€ ๋ชฝ๊ณจ ๊ตญ๊ฒฝ ํ†ต๊ด€ ์ œํ•œ ๋ฃจ๋จธ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๋ฉฐ ์‹œ์žฅ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ถ€์ถ”๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ด‘๋ฌผ์ž์› ํ˜‘์ƒ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋”ํ•ด์ ธ ์›์ž์žฌ ์ชฝ์ด ์ €์ ์—์„œ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฃผ ํ›„๋ฐ˜์— ์ ‘์–ด๋“ค๋ฉด์„œ ๊ฐ์ง€ ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ ์ •๋น„ ๋ฃจ๋จธ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์˜ค์ž ๋ถ€์ •์  ํ”ผ๋“œ๋ฐฑ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค์†Œ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜๋ฉฐ ์›์ž์žฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฐ€๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ฃผ๋ง์„ ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  10์ฐจ ์ฝ”ํฌ์Šค ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๊ฐœ์‹œ๋˜๋ฉฐ ์›๋ฃŒํƒ„๊ณผ ์ฝ”ํฌ์Šค ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ตœ์ข… ์ˆ˜์š”์ฒ˜์˜ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ํŠน์ง•์ด ์ ์  ๋šœ๋ ทํ•ด์ง€๋ฉฐ ํ•„์š”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ €๊ฐ€ ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋ณด์ถฉ์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋น„๊ต์  ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ํ˜„ยท์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ๊ณ„์† ํ™•๋Œ€๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค...
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7.3 SMM ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ผ์ผ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
7.3 SMM ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ผ์ผ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
7.3 SMM ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ผ์ผ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ
7.3 SMM ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ผ์ผ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ
[ํ‰ํŒ ์ œํ’ˆ(HRC)] EU ์ฟผํ„ฐ ์ถ•์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์— ํƒ€๊ฒฉ, HRC ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์•ˆ์ •ยท๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ€์ง„ 7์›” 3์ผ์—๋Š” ์Šฌ๋ž˜๋ธŒ/HRC ์ „์šฉ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์ผ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ตœ์‹  ์ˆ˜์น˜๋Š” 7์›” 2์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. HRC ๋ฐ ๊ธฐํƒ€ ํ‰ํŒ ์ œํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, HRC ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” ํ†ค๋‹น 488~497๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋” ๋‚ฎ์€ ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ์˜คํผ๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” ๋ถ€์ง„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. EU ์ฟผํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜๋ฉด์„œ, 4์›” ์ดํ›„ EU๋กœ์˜ ์„ ์ ์ด ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ „ํ•ด์ง€๋ฉฐ, ์ด์ „์— EU ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋น„์ค‘์ด ๋†’์•˜๋˜ ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์ž…์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. [๋นŒ๋ ›] ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋นŒ๋ › FOB 458~461๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ, ํ•ด์™ธ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ˆ˜์š” ์•ฝ์„ธ 7์›” 3์ผ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋นŒ๋ ›์€ FOB ๊ธฐ์ค€ ํ†ค๋‹น 458~461๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ํ˜ธ๊ฐ€๋˜๋ฉฐ ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋™๋‚จ์•„์‹œ์•„ ๋ฌธ์˜๋Š” ์†Œํญ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์˜คํผ๋Š” ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๊ณ  ํ•ด์™ธ ๋ฐ”์ด์–ด๋“ค์€ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์„ ๊บผ๋ฆฌ๋ฉฐ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๊ด€๋ง์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. [์ฒ ๊ทผ] ์ฒ ๊ทผ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์˜คํผ ์•ˆ์ •, ๋ฌธ์˜ ๋ถ€์ง„ ์† ํ™์ฝฉ ์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ 7์›” 3์ผ ์ฒ ๊ทผ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์˜คํผ๋Š” ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ด€๋ง ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†๋˜๊ณ  ๋ฌธ์˜๋Š” ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€์ง„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋“ค์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ์ตœ๊ทผ ํ™์ฝฉ์—์„œ ์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ํ•„์š”์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ตฌ๋งค์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” ํ™œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
MMi ์ผ์ผ ์ฒ ๊ด‘์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ (7์›” 3์ผ)
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MMi ์ผ์ผ ์ฒ ๊ด‘์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ (7์›” 3์ผ)
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
MMi ์ผ์ผ ์ฒ ๊ด‘์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ (7์›” 3์ผ)
MMi ์ผ์ผ ์ฒ ๊ด‘์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ (7์›” 3์ผ)
์˜ค๋Š˜ DCE ์ฒ ๊ด‘์„ ์„ ๋ฌผ์€ ์•ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, I2609 ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ์ „ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์ผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1.74% ํ•˜๋ฝํ•œ 734์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์— ๋งˆ๊ฐ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•ญ๋งŒ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์ „์ผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 3~8์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋“ค์˜ ์›€์ง์ž„์€ ๋ณดํ†ต ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ์˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋Š” ์ฃผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋ณด์ถฉ์šฉ์ด์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ‰๊ท  ์ˆ˜์ค€์— ๋จธ๋ฌผ๋ €์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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ใ€SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Reviewใ€‘Weak Supply and Stro - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)