SHFE Copper Fluctuated After Hitting New Highs, SHFE Aluminum Lacks Momentum for Rebound [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market】During the night session, SHFE copper opened higher and then fluctuated lower, but it regained strength in the afternoon session, with the most-traded May contract closing at 81,910, up 1.17%. Total trading volume slightly decreased, while total open interest increased by over 3,000 lots. SHFE aluminum fluctuated lower during the night session and narrowed its losses during the day session, with the most-traded May contract closing at 20,705, up 0.02%. Both total trading volume and open interest slightly decreased. Meanwhile, alumina jumped initially and then pulled back, with the most-traded May contract closing at 3,066, up 0.10%.

【Analysis】Copper hit a new phase high, maintaining its overall strength. In the later period, attention should be paid to the production cuts and maintenance-related output reductions by smelters against the backdrop of continuously declining copper concentrate TCs. The medium-term outlook remains positive, while the short-term focus is on whether open interest can continue to expand above 82,000. Aluminum's rebound momentum is insufficient, and the bottom of upstream alumina still needs to be verified. In the later period, attention should be paid to aluminum inventory reductions during the peak season. Currently, aluminum is under the dual influence of copper and alumina, with a focus on fluctuations between 20,500 and 21,000.

【Valuation】Copper is neutral to slightly high, while aluminum is neutral.

【Risk】Macro policies fall short of expectations.

(Source: China Fortune Futures)