Copper Prices Fluctuate Amid Macro and Fundamental Factors

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Mar 24, 2025 08:53
Copper Prices Fluctuated Downward on Friday Night but Support Remains: On Friday, US Fed officials indicated no rush to cut interest rates, boosting the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. However, concerns over Trump's trade policies and expectations of two interest rate cuts by the US Fed within the year put pressure on the US dollar, supporting copper prices. Fundamentally, the price spread between SHFE copper 2504 and 2505 contracts shifted to a backwardation structure, indicating rising expectations of tight supply, with downstream demand picking up and inventory drawdown accelerating. Both supply and demand sides support copper prices, but attention should be paid to the speed of inventory reduction and the sustainability of demand. Trump's tariff policies and changes in US economic data remain focal points. Overall, under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors, the downside for copper prices is limited.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
ACG Metals๋Š” 9์›” 1์ผ ํŠ€๋ฅดํ‚ค์˜ˆ ์†Œ์žฌ Gediktepe ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ 8์›” 31์ผ ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ฆ์‚ฐ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ๋Œ์ž…ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ ์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ”Œ๋žœํŠธ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ์ตœ์ ํ™”ํ•˜์—ฌ 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ๊ฐ€๋™์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. Gediktepe์˜ ์ •์ƒ ์ƒํƒœ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ™˜์‚ฐ 2๋งŒ~2๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค์ด๋‹ค. ์ „์ฒด ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋ฌธ์—๋Š” ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด 2026๋…„ 8์›” ์ฒซ ์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ๋„ ํฌํ•จ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ๋‚ ์งœ์™€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. SMM์€ 2026๋…„ ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ๋‚ด ์•„์—ฐ ํ•จ์œ ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์•ฝ 1๋งŒ~1๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
12์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
12์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
14์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
์—ํ”ผ๋ก์ด MMG ๋ฆฌ๋ฏธํ‹ฐ๋“œ์™€ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์—…์ฒด์ธ ์ฐจ์ด๋‚˜ ํ™”์˜ˆ, 23MCC๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ํ™•์žฅ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ง€ํ•˜ ์ฑ„๊ตด ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์„ ์•ฝ 6์–ต 1์ฒœ๋งŒ ํฌ๋กœ๋‚˜(6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ) ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์—๋Š” ๊ฐฑ๋„ ๊ตด์ฐฉ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ณผํŒ… ์žฅ๋น„, ๋กœ๋”, ์ง€ํ•˜ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์›๊ฒฉ ์ œ์–ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ, ์˜ˆ๋น„ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ, ๊ต์œก, ํ˜„์žฅ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ง€์›์ด ํฌํ•จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด ์žฅ๋น„๋Š” MMG๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ธ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ •๊ด‘ ๋‚ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ธˆ์† ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์•ฝ 6๋งŒ ํ†ค์—์„œ 13๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์—๋Š” ์—ฐ์‚ฐ 450๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜์–ด ์ด ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ 800๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉฐ, Zone 5 North, Mango, Zeta North-East ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง„ํ–‰๋œ๋‹ค. ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์€ 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค. ์—ํ”ผ๋ก์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ง€ํ•˜ ์žฅ๋น„์˜ ์ธ๋„๊ฐ€ 2026๋…„ 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ์— ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜์–ด 2028๋…„ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ํ™•์žฅ ์ผ์ •๊ณผ ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ์ผ์น˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ฃผ๋ฌธ๋œ ์žฅ๋น„์—๋Š” ๋ถ€๋จธ ๊ฐฑ๋„ ๊ตด์ฐฉ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์‹ฌ๋ฐ” ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์ผ€์ด๋ธ”ํ… ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ณผํŒ… ์žฅ๋น„, ์Šค์ฟฑํŠธ๋žจ ๋กœ๋”, ๋งˆ์ธํŠธ๋Ÿญ ์ง€ํ•˜ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ผ๋ถ€ ์žฅ๋น„๋Š” ์ž๋™ํ™” ๋ฐ ์›๊ฒฉ ์ œ์–ด ์šด์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋„๋ก ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์Šน์ธ๋œ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ์˜ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‹คํ–‰ ์ด์ •ํ‘œ๋กœ, ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์กฐ๋‹ฌ์ด ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žฅ๋น„ ์ธ๋„๊ฐ€ 2028๋…„ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜ˆ์ •๋œ ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ, ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” MMG๊ฐ€ ๊ณ„ํšํ•œ ์ •๊ด‘ ๋‚ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 13๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ์„ ํ–ฅํ•ด ๊ณ„์† ์ง„์ „๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ํ™•์žฅ์€ ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์นผ๋ผํ•˜๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฒจํŠธ์—์„œ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋Œ€ํญ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.
14์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
Copper Prices Fluctuated Downward on Friday Night but Support Remains: - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)