SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting: Bearish Factors Intensify, Yet Domestic Fundamentals Show Resilience

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: US Consumption Boom Cools Down, Economy Sounds "Stagflation" Alarm, Economic Slowdown May Loom Over Global Markets]

Macro side, the EU plans to investigate aluminum imports and tighten steel tariffs, coupled with weak US February retail data and the OECD's downgrade of global growth forecasts, multiple bearish factors intensify market resistance. Domestically, January-February consumption and industrial data showed recovery, and the Ministry of Commerce promoted the integration of domestic and foreign trade, with economic resilience offsetting external risks. Fundamentals side, although the traditional peak season effect of "Golden March and Silver April" continues to manifest, early March domestic aluminum inventory destocking outperformed expectations. However, the sustained strong performance of aluminum prices, repeatedly testing the 21,000 yuan mark, has to some extent impacted the spot supply-demand pattern of the aluminum industry chain. Nevertheless, SMM emphasizes that as the peak season progresses, the marginal strengthening logic of end-user restocking momentum remains intact.