SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Alumina Weakness Continues as Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Amid Mixed Fundamentals

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Alumina Weakness Persists, SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates Rangebound]

Macro side, US consumer confidence plunged in March, while inflation expectations surged; domestically, the favourable macro front remains unchanged. Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continues, with sporadic spot transactions in the alumina spot market. Transaction prices saw a further slight decline. In the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to increase and decrease simultaneously, with no significant drop in total operating capacity anticipated. Alumina fundamentals remain in a slight surplus, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term. Both supply and demand for aluminum are growing. As the consumption peak season approaches, most sectors are seeing a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Coupled with destocking in aluminum ingot social inventory, this provides strong support for aluminum prices. Under the resonance of macro factors and the industry chain, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward at high levels in the short term.