US Dollar Index Remains at Four-Month Low, Copper Prices High Suppress Consumption [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM March 17 News: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,797/mt, peaked at $9,822.5/mt, and hit a low of $9,761.0/mt during the session, eventually closing at $9,793.0/mt. The overall trend showed an initial rise, followed by a decline and then fluctuations, with a % change of 0.45%. Trading volume reached 15,419 lots, and open interest stood at 302,095 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2504 futures contract opened at 80,120 yuan/mt, reached a session high of 80,160 yuan/mt, and a low of 79,690 yuan/mt, finally closing at 79,880 yuan/mt. The overall trend exhibited a fluctuating downward pattern, with a % change of 0.00%. Trading volume was 14,333 lots, and open interest totaled 143,098 lots. Macro side, the US consumer confidence index for March declined for the third consecutive month, while consumer expectations for future inflation rose, with the annual inflation rate for the next year expected to reach 4.9%, the highest level since 2022. Additionally, the US Commerce Secretary indicated that tariffs on imported automobiles might be imposed next month. The US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back, still hovering near a four-month low, providing support for copper prices. Fundamentally, copper prices continued to rise, while spot consumption remained weak, and downstream purchase willingness was significantly under pressure. Moreover, today marks the last trading day for the 2403 contract, and spot premiums are expected to remain relatively stable, with downstream consumption unlikely to improve. In summary, with the US dollar index maintaining a low level, copper prices are expected to find support at the bottom today.