Futures Market: LME copper opened at $9,760/mt overnight, initially fluctuated downward to a low of $9,713.5/mt, then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $9,836/mt near the close. It slightly pulled back at the end, closing at $9,749/mt, down 1.14%. Trading volume was 23,000 lots, and open interest was 298,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 79,480 yuan/mt overnight, dipped to 79,340 yuan/mt initially, then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 80,290 yuan/mt near the close. It slightly pulled back at the end, closing at 79,800 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume reached 58,000 lots, and open interest reached 214,000 lots.

【SMM Copper Morning Brief】News: (1) US Trade Policy - ① Trump: If the EU does not remove the spirits tax, plans to impose a 200% retaliatory tariff on wine and champagne; ② Commerce Secretary: Canada's retaliatory tariffs have lost their threat. Trump will always respond with greater force and stronger measures; ③ Treasury Secretary: Tariff negotiations can be conducted in all areas except metals and automobiles; ④ UK media: Tesla warned the Trump administration that tariffs could increase the cost of car production in the US.

(2) The central bank held an expanded meeting, stating that it will implement an appropriately loose monetary policy and will cut RRR and interest rates at an opportune time based on domestic and overseas economic and financial conditions and financial market operations.

Spot Market: (1) Shanghai: On March 13, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2503 contract were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 15 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. According to SMM, there was a slight inventory buildup in Shanghai and Jiangsu this week, while destocking mainly occurred in Guangdong. High copper prices pressured downstream purchase willingness, but due to continuous exports by domestic smelters and reduced import arrivals, the overall domestic destocking trend is expected to remain unchanged. Spot premiums are expected to rise further today.

(2) Guangdong: On March 13, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventories continued to decline, and suppliers stood firm on quotes, but downstream restocking willingness weakened, and overall transactions were less active than the previous trading day.

(3) Imported Copper: On March 13, warrant prices were $45-55/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $70-90/mt, QP April, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at $15-25/mt, QP March, with the average price up $5/mt from the previous trading day. Quotes referenced cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March and early April. Yesterday, the SHFE/LME price ratio for the SHFE copper 2503 contract was around -1,100 yuan/mt. LME copper 3M-Mar was at C$10.65/mt, LME copper 3M-Apr was at B$6.42/mt, and the March-April spread was around C$17.07/mt. Currently, March-arrival B/Ls are scarce, EQ prices have risen significantly, and actual transaction prices have increased. Meanwhile, some traders sought bonded warehouse inventories, but offers were high, and transactions were limited.

(4) Secondary Copper: On March 13, secondary copper raw material prices rose by 800 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 72,700-72,900 yuan/mt, up 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between primary metal and scrap was 1,968 yuan/mt, down 536 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between primary and secondary copper rods was 1,535 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, rising copper prices and the high price difference between primary metal and scrap significantly stimulated traders' willingness to pick up goods. Some secondary copper rod enterprises reported that their finished product inventories were almost cleared, and they plan to purchase more secondary copper raw materials for production to replenish finished product inventories.

(5) Inventory: On March 13, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 3,125 mt to 237,200 mt. On the same day, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 8,911 mt to 158,262 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, Trump stated that if the EU does not remove the spirits tax, he plans to impose a 200% retaliatory tariff on wine and champagne, escalating global trade tensions and denting market confidence. US stocks fell, and the US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back, pressuring LME copper to close lower. Domestically, the central bank held a meeting and stated that it will implement an appropriately loose monetary policy and cut RRR and interest rates at an opportune time, providing strong macro support for SHFE copper. On the fundamentals, supply side, rising copper prices prompted suppliers to hold back cargoes, tightening market supply and pushing spot premiums higher. Demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, leading to sluggish market transactions and a supply-demand stalemate. As of March 13, SMM's copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell to 356,000 mt, marking two consecutive weeks of destocking, down 21,000 mt from the yearly high. Looking ahead to next week, inventories may continue to decline due to increased exports and reduced imports, but the decline may narrow. In terms of prices, macro factors are mixed. Escalating trade tensions weigh on market sentiment, but domestic loose monetary policy supports copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at highs today, with attention on the US dollar index and macro policy developments.

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【The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】