The Main Theme of Domestic Favourable Macro Front Remains Unchanged, SHFE Aluminum Prices Showed a "V-Shaped" Rebound Today [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review]

》View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, March 11:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2504 contract opened at 20,905 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,925 yuan/mt, a low of 20,615 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,845 yuan/mt, down 0.12%. Trading volume was 17 lots, and open interest was 172,000 lots.

SMM Comments: On the macro side, endless tariff disputes have raised concerns about a potential US economic recession. The market is also focusing on the US Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Traders have fully priced in the possibility of a US interest rate cut in June. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum production resumption is progressing, with capacity expected to be released by the end of March. Inventory side, after the weekend, domestic aluminum ingot destocking resumed, making the turning point of domestic aluminum ingot destocking clearer. Coupled with the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises continued to rebound, strengthening support for aluminum consumption. Overall, the macro side remains mixed, with domestic macro favorable factors unchanged, while overseas trade barriers are increasing but remain highly uncertain. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand are increasing. During the peak consumption season, most sectors saw a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Combined with the destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory, aluminum prices are supported to some extent. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hover at highs, with attention on the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,195 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,215 yuan/mt, a low of 3,173 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,190 yuan/mt, down 0.93%. Trading volume was 110,000 lots, and open interest was 197,000 lots.

SMM Comments: Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continued, with sluggish spot alumina transactions and spot prices remaining stable. Overseas alumina transaction prices further declined, and the domestic alumina export window has closed, making it difficult for alumina exports to provide sustained demand in the future. Fundamentals side, no large-scale production cuts have been reported in alumina operating capacity, and the alumina market remains in a slight surplus. Spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]