Stalemate in Back-and-Forth Negotiations Between Upstream and Downstream, Rare Earth Prices Return to Stability [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 7 News: This week, rare earth prices fluctuated slightly. Upstream suppliers attempted to raise raw material quotations, but due to low acceptance of high prices downstream, back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream intensified, leading to a market stalemate. Overall, mainstream rare earth product prices dropped back slightly WoW. Approaching the weekend, factory quotations became firmer, making low-price transactions more difficult, and rare earth prices began to stabilize. Meanwhile, purchasing activity from downstream and metal plants increased, but actual trading volume showed no significant improvement.

Compared to the beginning of the year, rare earth prices remain relatively high, and downstream buyers continue to adopt a wait-and-see sentiment. According to miners, Myanmar ore imports are unlikely to return to normal in the short term, and tight raw material supply has led some upstream suppliers to hold a bullish outlook on future rare earth prices. Currently, although some traders are selling at low prices for cash flow, producer quotations remain firm, making both low- and high-price transactions relatively difficult. However, due to the impact of funding and order costs, downstream magnetic material enterprises are inquiring for lower prices, causing some metal transaction prices to decline.

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This week, Pr-Nd in light rare earths remained stable, quickly stabilizing after a brief slight fluctuation. In medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium and terbium gradually stabilized after low-price transactions became difficult. Although shipments increased, the price drop was limited, and fundamentals remained stable.

Additionally, prices of cerium oxide and yttrium oxide rose significantly during the week due to tight spot supply and concentrated purchasing. Optimism among market participants further fueled bullish sentiment, driving prices higher.

Currently, raw material supply remains tight, while downstream metal plants and magnetic material enterprises continue to expand production. However, end-use order releases remain below expectations, intensifying the stalemate in upstream and downstream negotiations. Rare earth mainstream product prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in the short term, while medium and long-term trends will depend on the growth of end-use demand and the release of mining quotas.