[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Significant Macro Disturbances, SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates Upward] Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized after declining, mainly supported by short-term export demand and stockpiling for transfer to delivery warehouses. However, the downward trend in overseas prices has squeezed export profit margins. The market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online, with the expectation of a loosening alumina supply and demand balance remaining strong. Medium and long-term prices are still under pressure. Driven by macro sentiment and trading expectations, SHFE aluminum remains more likely to rise than fall. However, escalating overseas trade frictions have raised concerns. Close attention should be paid to the implementation of policies from the Two Sessions. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain at high levels, fluctuating upward.
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