Domestic Bauxite Production Remains Low, Imported Bauxite Supply Increases, Improving the Supply-Demand Pattern [SMM Analysis]

SMM, Feb 28:

According to SMM estimates, China's bauxite production in February 2025 (28 days) decreased slightly by 10.9% MoM but was up 11.8% YoY, mainly due to the low production levels in Shanxi and Henan regions in February 2024. Currently, domestic bauxite production remains at a low level. However, with a significant increase in imported bauxite supply, the fundamentals of bauxite supply and demand have improved.

In terms of inventory:

According to SMM data, as of February 2025, the total bauxite raw material inventory at domestic alumina refineries rebounded slightly by 3.3% MoM but decreased by 3.1% YoY. Overall inventory levels remain low but have increased compared to earlier periods.

As of February 28, SMM statistics show that the total bauxite inventory at nine ports reached 14.56 million mt. Port bauxite inventory levels remain low but have shown a slight rebound, mainly due to increased imported bauxite supply. Driven by high prices, Guinea's monthly bauxite shipments in December 2024 and January 2025 reached historical highs, calculated on a calendar month basis, with shipments of approximately 14.6 million wmt and 16.1 million wmt, respectively, significantly higher than the monthly shipment levels of 10-13.5 million wmt from January to November 2024. In the first few weeks of February 2025, Guinea's average bauxite shipment levels remained relatively high, and it is expected that China's bauxite imports from Guinea will remain at a relatively high level in February-March.

SMM Comments: In the short term, the bauxite supply and demand balance is likely to remain relatively stable. At current price levels, some alumina refineries are facing losses. As a result, the acceptable bauxite prices for alumina refineries have dropped significantly, putting pressure on bauxite prices, which are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)

Data source: SMM Click here to access the SMM industry database for more information

(Mingxin Guo, 021-51595800)