SMM Aluminum Futures: Alumina Prices Fluctuate, SHFE Aluminum Shows Volatility

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Limited Downside Room for Alumina, SHFE Aluminum Jumps Initially and Then Pulls Back]

Current alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Although some alumina refineries in north China have recently undertaken maintenance, which might cause short-term supply disruptions, the gradual release of new capacity domestically and internationally, along with the opening of the export window, has further reinforced expectations of a supply surplus in the market. Before any substantial reduction in supply materializes, the rebound room for alumina remains limited. If alumina prices continue to fluctuate downward, the possibility of expanded production cuts and delays in future commissioning plans cannot be ruled out. Downstream consumption is still in a recovery phase, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of seasonal order fulfillment and the impact of aluminum prices on end-user purchase willingness. In the later period, with the increase in PV demand and the comprehensive resumption of work and production by end-users, while supply-side increments remain limited, aluminum prices are expected to primarily maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term.