SMM Aluminum Futures Review: Fluctuating Trends Amid Demand Recovery and Alumina Adjustments

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Demand Recovery, Alumina Fluctuates Upward, SHFE Aluminum Rises with Increased Positions]

Recently, the macro front and fundamentals have shown a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Currently, alumina prices may enter a fluctuating adjustment phase. Going forward, attention should focus on the sustainability of the alumina export window and changes in operating capacity. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend: on one hand, inventory resistance and cost easing limit the upside room; on the other hand, macro policy expectations and hopes for consumption recovery provide underlying support. In Q2, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the release of policy dividends, aluminum prices are expected to strengthen amid fluctuations driven by demand recovery. However, caution is needed regarding systemic risks from overseas liquidity tightening exceeding expectations.