US Dollar Index Retreats to 107 Points, Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Moves Up [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, February 14: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2503 futures contract opened at 69,050 yuan/mt, closing with a bullish candlestick. The upper shadow pierced through the Bollinger upper band, while the lower shadow crossed the 5-day moving average. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 03 contract fluctuated lower as bears increased positions, hitting bottom at 68,610 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears took profits and closed positions, leading to a rebound in the futures market. During the morning trading session, the market center rose above the 69,000 yuan/mt mark. In the afternoon session, the most-traded BC copper 03 contract fluctuated rangebound, reaching a high of 69,720 yuan/mt and eventually closing at 69,450 yuan/mt, up 660 yuan/mt or 0.96%. The increase was mainly attributed to bears reducing positions, with open interest at 5,414 lots, down 162 lots from the previous trading day. Trading volume reached 9,841 lots, up 890 lots from the previous day.

Macro side, following the US January CPI data exceeding market expectations, the US January PPI grew 3.5% YoY, surpassing the forecast of 3.2%. On a MoM basis, it increased by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%, indicating rising US inflation. The US government announced a further delay in the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies for other countries. The US dollar index retreated to the 107 level, boosting copper prices.

The SHFE copper 2503 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2503 contract price of 69,450 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 78,479 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2503 contract and the BC copper 2503 contract stood at -389 yuan/mt, maintaining a backwardation and narrowing compared to the previous trading day.