The Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Closed Lower, Focus on US January Inflation Data [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, February 12: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2503 contract opened at 68,220 yuan/mt and closed with a bullish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average crossing the candlestick body. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 03 contract opened lower with a gap. After the opening, bears dominated, and the futures market bottomed out at 68,010 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound. During the morning trading session, as bulls increased their positions, the market center slightly moved upward. In the afternoon trading session, the most-traded BC copper 03 contract fluctuated upward, peaking at 68,520 yuan/mt near the close and finally settling at 68,510 yuan/mt, down 290 yuan/mt or 0.42%. The decline was mainly attributed to long liquidation, with open interest decreasing to 5,540 lots, down 194 lots from the previous trading day. Trading volume reached 8,563 lots, up 311 lots from the previous trading day.

Macro side, Fed Chairman Powell stated that there is no rush to continue cutting interest rates. Tonight, the US January CPI will be released, providing further guidance on subsequent inflation issues. Ahead of the data release, market sentiment remained relatively cautious. Copper prices fluctuated slightly lower during the day. Current market expectations suggest that the YoY growth rate will remain flat compared to the previous value, while the MoM growth rate is expected to decline by 0.1% compared to the previous value.

The SHFE copper 2503 contract settled at 77,000 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2503 contract price of 68,510 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 77,416 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2503 contract and the BC copper 2503 contract stood at -416 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and widening compared to the previous trading day.